All to play for between SNP and Labour in what could be longest-ever election campaign

A new poll showing Labour and the SNP are essentially neck-and-neck in voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament shows there is all to play for as parties prepare to compete in what could become the longest election campaign in the history of devolution. Survation put both on 28 per cent in the constituency vote, with Labour just ahead in the regional list, at 25 per cent to the nationalists’ 24.

Both Scotland’s governments face making difficult decisions that could make them unpopular. Swingeing SNP spending cuts will be a lasting source of opportunities for the opposition. For example, tomorrow the Scottish Conservatives will table a motion urging the Scottish Government to rethink its decision to ditch its plan for free school meals for primary 6 and 7 pupils.

With a minority administration, the SNP face a struggle to persuade MSPs to pass their Budget. This means there could be a snap election early next year – one reason why politicians are ramping up the rhetoric. Another is that John Swinney’s government appears wounded after the general election, with the opposition anxious to maintain the momentum.

Starmer embracing unpopularity

However, Labour’s chances may be affected by the performance of Keir Starmer’s UK Government. His insistence that Labour need to make “tough choices” after previous governments ran away from them – and even “be unpopular” – suggests Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar could suffer from a similar ‘Westminster effect’ to that which dogged the Scottish Conservatives, particularly if Starmer enters the traditional period of ‘mid-term blues’ in 2026.

Labour's Anas Sarwar and the SNP's John Swinney are locked in a political battle for the future of Scotland (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell) | Getty Images

For those groaning at the idea of life under a dark, grey cloud of endless electioneering for the next two years, there is a silver living. The tenor of the debate has decisively shifted from the independence question towards practical matters, like how to grow the economy and save the NHS, that have been sidelined for too long. It remains to be seen how successful he will be, but the First Minister appears to realise this and to be trying to reposition his party away from Indyref2 fantasies.

Make no mistake, a political battle royal has been joined and it may determine Scotland’s future for years to come.