SNP and Labour neck-and-neck ahead of 2026, according to a new poll

The SNP and Labour are neck-and-neck in support ahead of the 2026 election, a poll suggests.

Pollster Survation spoke to 1,021 Scots eligible to vote between August 27 and 29 in a survey commissioned by campaign group Scotland in Union.

According to the poll, both the SNP and Labour were on 28% support in the constituency vote among likely voters, while Anas Sarwar’s party enjoys a one point lead over John Swinney’s at 25 per cent and 24 per cent respectively in the regional list vote.

First Minister and SNP leader John Swinney, and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. Photo: Jeff Mitchell/Getty Images | Getty Images

Meanwhile, the Scottish Tories will be wary of the rise in popularity of Reform UK.

The Nigel Farage-led party failed to win a seat north of the border in July’s general election, but took significant support from the Tories.

In the Survation poll, the Tories would win just 11 per cent of the constituency vote – compared to 22 per cent at the last election – while Reform would jump to 9 per cent.

The Tories would win the same support at the regional level, while Reform would win 8 per cent.

The Scottish Greens, meanwhile, boasted 6 per cent support in constituencies and 9 per cent in the regional list, the Scottish Lib Dems enjoyed 9 per cent in both areas and Alba had 1 per cent in the constituency and 2 per cent in the regions.

The poll also sought to assess the level of support for Scottish independence as the 10-year anniversary of the referendum in 2014 approaches.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage reacts after winning the Clacton and Harwich constituency on July 5, in Clacton-on-Sea. Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images | Getty Images

The poll showed 59 per cent support for staying in the UK, compared to 41 per cent for independence among decided voters.

However, the question did not mirror that which was put before Scots a decade ago, instead echoing the question asked to Britons in the Brexit referendum two years later.

The question asked by the pollster was, “if there was a referendum with the question, ‘Should Scotland remain part of the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’, how would you vote?”

While the 2014 question asked was, “should Scotland be an independent country?”

Alastair Cameron, the founder and chair of Scotland in Union, said the poll showed “the majority of voters still want to remain”.

“The SNP’s relentless campaign to re-run the referendum has detracted from the important job of government,” he added.

“People want their politicians to prioritise what really matters – improving our NHS, tackling the cost of living, creating jobs, and delivering housing.”