Why Nigel Farage’s Reform party must now be taken seriously in Scotland

Shortly after this year’s general election, when Reform UK achieved a credible seven per cent of the votes cast, there was a bellyache of dismissive commentary that the insurgent party would not maintain its momentum and everything would return to normal. It was even suggested the Scottish Conservatives whom, the narrative rather lazily assumes, had especially suffered from Reform’s presence, need not worry once new management was put in place.

Some five months on and closer to the Holyrood elections in spring of 2026, the reality is beginning to dawn on Reform UK’s critics that it is going to make a significant impact by taking votes from all parties.

We cannot yet say with certainty who from and where in Scotland that Reform UK will pick up most of its votes, but the evidence of polling trends and real votes in council by-elections tells us both Labour and the SNP should fear the party led by Nigel Farage.

Reform winning defectors

The election outcome is now becoming far less certain, which I believe is good for democracy, good for making politicians accountable to the electorate and, with some irony, might just salvage devolution from the ignominy its many failings have brought to its reputation.

Just last week Reform UK came third in all three Glasgow council by-elections – taking votes from both the SNP and Labour. Since July, Reform UK has attracted four sitting councillors to its ranks. While all had been elected as Conservatives in the past, the possibility of attracting more councillors, including some from other parties should not be discounted. A looming defeat at the polls can concentrate the mind wonderfully.

I know, because I have taken the trouble to speak to recently recruited Reform UK supporters, that many are scunnered not by the Tories – for they never supported them – but by the SNP or Labour. This epiphany has crossed over whole families who once thought those legacy parties could improve their lives but now believe their politicians never kept their promises to deliver on the basic needs of ordinary people.

Nigel Farage's Reform UK party is not just taking voting from the Conservatives (Picture: Chris J Ratcliffe) | Getty Images

Misspent nationalist youth

Many voters dallied with the idea of independence, having been convinced it could be the road to better things, but – either because they now see it as only likely to make their lives harder and more difficult or because it has been taken off the agenda for the foreseeable future – they view that experience as wasted effort, a mistake like misspent youth. Hard realities require recognition of tough choices by putting people rather than constitutional politics first.

Others have supported Labour all their lives but no sooner did Sir Keir Starmer come to power and start breaking his promises, than they were scunnered by Labour too. Many have decided it is time to get behind a new party that talks what they see as common sense.

Taking away the winter heating allowance from some ten million pensioners and raising employers’ National Insurance contributions that will increase prices, increase unemployment and suppress their wages were two of many policies former Labour voters see as against their interests – or just plain mean and heartless.

Despite the weekend's cold wet weather, hundreds of Reform UK supporters piled into a large Perth hotel that required an overspill room to hear independent non-aligned speakers, myself included, discuss a variety of issues. Topics ranged from the dire state of the public finances going back to the Blair and Brown years, how to provide genuine rehab to tackle Scotland’s drug and alcohol addiction, policies to reverse the collapse of education standards and school discipline, to helping farmers put food on the table.

Immense folly

If I am right – and my early predictions of a Scottish breakthrough for the Brexit Party in the 2019 European elections and Farage’s impact on Scottish vote share in the 2025 general election were both borne out – Reform UK will be presented with a genuine opportunity in the run-up to the Scottish Parliament elections.

Put simply, the SNP reputation has been trashed by the huge political misjudgments of its own leadership, resulting in a visible collapse in public services. Voters want change and the SNP cannot be put out of its misery soon enough. This would normally mean Labour being viewed as the natural replacement but at UK level its support is already plummeting and this will impact on Scottish Labour’s ability to sweep the SNP away.

It would, however, be an immense folly to see the SNP as the natural opposition to Labour when it is John Swinney and his ministers who are directly responsible for the vast majority of public services crises in Scotland. Rewarding the SNP for failing education, healthcare, transport, housing, justice and a bloated bureaucracy makes no sense.

Legacy of failure and broken promises

Reform UK, already polling ahead of the Liberal Democrats and Greens, and already level if not ahead of the Scottish Conservatives, is well placed to become the natural repository of a demand for change the old legacy parties cannot deliver.

They are called legacy parties for a reason – they have been around a long time and have an unenviable record – a legacy of failure, a legacy of breaking their promises, a legacy for a breach of trust.

Voters want change that will bring a positive impact on their lives, they have repeatedly been given hope by legacy politicians who then let them down. Reform UK is gaining support by promising to do things differently, to reject juvenile student union politics that sees international issues like Palestine taking up real time in Holyrood when there is so much needing put right in Scotland.

Thanks to their own complacency and arrogance, the SNP and Labour, like the Tories before them, are now set to both lose votes to Reform UK and force Holyrood to start discussing what really matters to the Scottish people who pay the politicians’ wages and pensions.

Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European parliaments, representing the Conservative and Brexit parties