Why Nigel Farage's Reform party is doomed to fail in Scotland

The most telling intervention for Scotland in Reform UK’s recent party conference was a pledge to abolish devolution. The admission during a speech by football chairman-cum-MP Rupert Lowe was denied in a panic by the party’s HQ shortly after, but it exposed the chaos at the heart of what will be a short-lived protest movement.

It’s the sort of amateur-hour performance that befalls most fringe parties – and Reform’s act will almost certainly be up by the time the Scottish elections come around in 2026. There are a number of reasons why Reform’s half-decent polling and vaguely respectable general election result in Scotland represent a peak that won’t be revisited.

Almighty squabble looms

Lowe’s a senior figure within the party, and his comments reveal that Reform’s hierarchy has absolutely no interest in Scotland. That disinterest will either prompt a dissipation of the party here or an almighty squabble leading to a splintering of even smaller, probably more extreme, movements.

How Reform voters helped the SNP escape an even bigger defeat

After all, what holds them together? They can’t even agree on whether they support independence or not, with several of their candidates admitting to voting Yes in 2014. Scotland’s constitutional debate may have moved on slightly, but it certainly isn’t ready for a party which doesn’t know if it wants the abolition of Holyrood or the obliteration of the 300-year-old British Union.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage may be on a high now, but his balloon is about to burst in Scotland (Picture: Joe Giddens) | PA

There are no obvious heavyweight Reform donors in Scotland. As it stands, money is pouring into Scottish Labour ahead of what is expected to be a tight contest with the SNP.

Millionaires who cannot stomach the idea of funding Sir Keir Starmer will consider again the Scottish Conservatives, under new management and with the worst of their infighting behind them. And given the obsession Reform has with stopping boats of migrants arriving on the south coast, there will be little in the way of cash being diverted north, hundreds of miles away from their target market.

Next to no ground operation

Campaigning in a Holyrood election is an expensive business. One of the reasons you won’t see any party requesting an early Holyrood vote is because they want more time to save up to do it properly in 2026.

You need to pay for leaflets, travel, the hiring of halls, advertising in print and online. You might want a “battle bus” or, for the flush and egotistical, a campaign helicopter with the leader’s name and photograph on the side.

Reform have next to nothing in the way of a ground operation, so will likely have to transport in activists at great expense. And that presents another challenge. There are only a handful of decent representatives to do the hard yards.

One, Glasgow’s John White, was a terrific campaigner for the Scottish Conservatives when he was a candidate. He would gladly front up stalls at supermarkets in places like Parkhead and Barrowfield – an activity even the hardiest Tory campaigner would find excuses to dodge.

A charismatic leader is not enough

But that commitment to the Reform cause won’t be enough in the Scottish Parliament’s electoral system. It’s impossible for Reform to win a constituency first-past-the-post seat, and hugely unlikely they could be so effective across any of the eight, vast parliamentary regions to qualify for a list seat.

Lots of small start-ups with charismatic leaders – Nigel Farage’s UKIP, George Galloway’s Alliance for Unity and even Alex Salmond’s Alba – have failed miserably on the electoral front. Many games played, zero victories.

You may argue that Reform’s decent numbers in the general election could be mirrored in a Scotland vote. But remember, for a UK general election people get a lot more of their news – especially on TV – from the British perspective.

They saw plenty of a buoyant Farage, a cocky Starmer and a crestfallen Rishi Sunak – and that influenced how they voted. In 2026, there will be none of that.

Social media problems

As things stand, Reform probably won’t qualify for a place on the run of televised leadership debates. Even if they did, any Scottish leader of Reform would likely be schooled on air by more experienced opponents.

You won’t see Reform on the Scottish evening news, and their press operation will be so callow you won’t read much about them in the newspapers. That will force them to rely on social media to get their message across, but that poses challenges too.

The X platform, formerly Twitter, is in freefall, with UK users dropping by a third in the last year. Facebook can only now be penetrated by people paying for their posts to be viewed, something that will be challenging for a low-budget party.

No one wants politics on Instagram or TikTok, and LinkedIn is far too sensible to indulge politicians on the far-right or the far-left. The doors are closing on a party that relies on disruption.

Scots like having a parliament

They benefited from a protest vote in the general election, but Holyrood ’26 won’t be like that. Dissatisfaction at the UK Tories – which was much deserved – will have faded, especially with the current UK Labour government trying so hard to tarnish its own reputation.

A cheesed-off Labour voter who still harbours resentment about the winter fuel payment, expensive clothes or the destruction of Scotland’s oil and gas sector won’t turn to Reform to soothe their rage.

I understand why candidates, especially those with blue rosettes, are worried about Reform. They received a rough ride on the doorsteps throughout summer, and often heard their own people say they were turning to Nigel Farage.

When they knock again in the early months of 2026, it won’t be the same. The people of Scotland like having their Scottish Parliament, and won’t put their trust in a party that doesn’t even understand if it wants it to exist or not.

There will, of course, be countless other headaches to contend with – but none will come under the banner of Reform, whose fire and threat will have long since burned out.

Adam Morris is former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives