Why Donald Trump's isolationist tendencies are 'definite' threat to Nato and world peace

Up until about ten years ago, most American foreign policy experts would have dismissed any suggestion that US ‘isolationism’ was a political force. Neither former Republican President George W Bush nor his Democrat successor Barack Obama could be remotely described as isolationists.

How times have changed. Part of the reason why Donald Trump is about to return as US President is his simplistic “America first” approach. Why should the US spend money on military aid to Ukraine when it could be spent on people at home? Why should America tie itself into alliances like Nato that could drag it into war?

Writing in Foreign Affairs magazine in September, Professor Charles Kupchan, an international affairs expert at Georgetown University, said the mainstream US foreign policy establishment thought of Trump as a “dangerous neo-isolationist, completely out of step with American ideals and interests”, fearing “he would dismantle the liberal order that the United States and its allies have built and defended since the Second World War”.

While he agreed “such fears are justified”, Kupchan said that “to portray his ‘America first’ approach as a dark deviation from the American experience is to misunderstand its deep historical and ideological roots, as well as its considerable political appeal. Trump’s statecraft is a response to a changing world and to demand signals from the US electorate, not a capricious effort to take apart the world that the United States made.”

Trump’s favourite word

Either by accident or design, Trump’s isolationism has struck a chord with many voters. It’s not hard to imagine why someone living in rural Montana might wonder why the US should get involved in a "quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing", to quote a 1938 speech by then Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain during the Sudetenland crisis as the Second World War loomed.

Trump’s isolationism can also be seen in his attitude towards trade. He has described ‘tariff’ as a “beautiful” word, declaring it his favourite. Were Trump to go ahead with threatened tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and ten per cent on goods from elsewhere, the fallout could see UK growth cut by half, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank, while inflation and interest rates would also be higher.

Greatest global crisis in years

But the economic effects of Trump’s presidency may be the least of our worries. If Trump fully embraces isolationism and pulls out of Nato, the resulting political vacuum will almost certainly be filled by China, Russia and possibly other newly emboldened autocratic states.

China will be watching closely to see how Trump treats Ukraine, as it continues to work itself up to invade Taiwan. It may regard the next four years as the best chance it will get to take the island while avoiding war with America.

Former Conservative leader and Foreign Secretary William Hague recently told Times Radio that the President-elect was dangerously unpredictable. “He’s unpredictable in whether he would back up Ukrainian troops who are sitting in the trenches at this moment. He’s unpredictable about how he would stand by Taiwan,” Hague said. “If America doesn’t stand by Taiwan, that threatens to produce a major international crisis, perhaps a greater crisis than any we have had in recent years.”

Asked on BBC Radio 4 if the world was a more dangerous place following Trump’s election, another former Conservative Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, gave a one-word answer: “Definitely.”

As the warmongering Putin doubtless celebrates Trump’s re-election, the UK and Europe must look to their defences.