Scotland faces 'ticking timebomb' as cancer rates set to explode, warn scientists

Scotland is facing “a ticking timebomb” of increased cancer rates, new research suggests, with scientists warning the number of diagnoses could surge by almost a quarter in coming decades.

Scotland’s ageing population is leading to a “timebomb” of increasing cancer rates, new research suggests, as scientists warn the number of Scots being diagnosed with cancer is forecast to increase by almost a quarter in less than two decades.

The average number of cancer cases is forecast to increase from more than 34,500 cases in 2019-21 to more than 42,000 cases in 2038-40, according to a report from Public Health Scotland (PHS).

The research, using models developed by Cancer Research UK, suggests the number of cases of all forms of the disease, excluding non-melanoma skin cancer, was predicted to rise by 22 per cent.

The number of Scots set to be diagnosed with cancer is set to rise by nearly a quarter

Kate Seymour, head of advocacy at Macmillan Cancer Support, said the figures highlighted a long predicted trend of rising incidence “primarily because of our ageing population”.

“This is already putting even more demand on cancer services, with waiting time targets being missed and the system struggling with the ever increasing number of people being diagnosed,” she said.

“With a ten-year strategy now in place, we need to build a cancer system that is fit for the future and mirrors the population it will be serving – older and with more complex needs – otherwise the situation will only get worse, with more services struggling to cope and an inevitably worsening impact on the level of care.

“The same demographic challenges are hitting the cancer workforce, with vacancies left unfilled due to many of our professionals reaching retirement age and staffing levels already stretched to breaking point.”

As a result, cancer cases per 100,000 people in Scotland are expected to rise from 629 in 2019-21 to 640 in 2038-40. Over the same period, cases amongst men are projected to rise from 695 per 100,000 people to 739 per 100,000 people.

However, the rate amongst women is projected to fall, with the figures showing this could go from 580 per 100,000 people in 2019-21 to 558 in 2038-40.

The projections are based on historical trends in cancer incidence, together with population estimates and projections for Scotland.

According to the report, lung, breast and bowel cancers are predicted to continue to be the most common forms of the disease in 2038-40.

The report reads: “While welcome reductions in smoking prevalence have occurred in Scotland, there remains considerable potential to prevent cancers through further reductions in smoking, reducing overweight [levels] and obesity, improving diet and reducing alcohol consumption.”

Opposition MSPs demanded action from the Scottish Government in the wake of the latest projections, with Labour health spokesperson Dame Jackie Baillie stating cancer treatment waiting times are already “a ticking timebomb”.

“There are already far too many avoidable and unnecessary deaths from cancer each year,” she said. “Scotland’s cancer waiting times have already skyrocketed and this is only going to get worse unless real steps are taken to address the crisis by the SNP.”

Scottish Conservative deputy health spokesperson Tess White said: “These alarming figures will surprise no one working on the frontline of Scotland’s NHS – and the blame for them lies squarely at the SNP’s door.”

She said delayed discharge was having a “disastrous impact” on the NHS, while the backlog of operations had reached “staggering levels”. Ms White called on health secretary Michael Matheson to “urgently explain how he intends to tackle these twin crises in Scotland’s NHS”.

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton said “many Scots diagnosed with cancer are being forced to wait day after day for the help they need”.

He insisted: “Ministers must pull out all the stops to bring down waiting times and ensure that all those eligible for screening programmes are being invited and encouraged to attend.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said cancer was “a priority” and “our focus remains on increasing survival rates across all cancers”.

“We published our new ten-year cancer strategy in June this year, which takes a comprehensive approach to improving patient pathways, from prevention and diagnosis through to treatment and post-treatment care,” the spokesperson said.

“The strategy aims to improve cancer survival and provide excellent, equitably accessible, care across Scotland. An initial three-year action plan was published alongside the strategy and sets out a range of actions linked to our overall strategic aim.

“The plan recognises that approximately 40 per cent of cancers remain preventable, due to risk factors such as smoking, obesity, physical activity and alcohol consumption, and there is a clear focus in the action plan to address these.

“The earlier cancer is diagnosed the easier it is to treat. This is why we continue to invest in our Detect Cancer Earlier (DCE) Programme, which adopts a whole systems approach to diagnosing and treating cancer as early as possible.

“We continue to redesign services through optimal cancer diagnostic pathways, establishing rapid cancer diagnostic services and urology diagnostic hubs.”