MUP Scotland: 'No impact' on consumption or take-up of low alcohol products under price hike - analysis

Analysis of the impact of the minimum unit pricing increase on alcohol has produced some interesting findings.

Last autumn’s hike in alcohol prices in Scotland has had little impact on overall consumption, with no significant shift to low and zero alcohol products, analysis has suggested.

Some seven months on from the increase in minimum pricing, from 50p to 65p per unit of alcohol, average volume prices have risen more in Scotland than in the UK as a whole, notably for spirits.

The minimum unit price (MUP) on alcohol had been increased to 65p. Picture: Jane Barlow/PA Wire | Jane Barlow/PA Wire

However, consumption levels north of the Border have not dropped off significantly, according to industry data. As a result, consumers in Scotland have increased their spend on beers, wines and spirits by more than the UK since the hike was introduced on September 30.

The key aim of minimum unit pricing (MUP) is to reduce the quantity of alcohol - or volume - being purchased overall.

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But detailed analysis by consumer insights provider Circana, covering the initial six-month period to March 29, found premium spirit brand owners have also benefited from the MUP increase.

With already higher prices, these brands have absorbed the hike more readily, limiting average volume price rises compared to their cheaper counterparts and have seen less volume drop off as a consequence.

Fortified wine and ready-to-drink spirits are said to have surged as consumers look for “value, convenience and quality”. Within the spirits category, volume has moved to smaller bottles as the savings from larger bottles have been eroded by MUP, with consumers looking to make unit price savings.

There has been no significant shift to low alcohol or zero-rated products despite the increase in MUP, according to Circana, which collects point of sale data from retailers. The firm said its research paints a “compelling picture of a post-MUP Scotland that’s not drinking less, just differently”.

Alex Lawrence, senior strategic insight director at Circana, said: “Six months on from the increase in Scotland’s minimum unit pricing - aimed at further curbing alcohol consumption in Scotland - and we can see that Scottish spirits in-home consumption has reduced.

“However, beer, cider and wine consumption looks to have been boosted, as consumers switch from shorts to pints, with premium product manufacturers and the convenience channel also raising their glasses as they gain market share.”

A consumer purchases beer from a supermarket in Scotland. Picture: John Devlin

Scotland became the first country in the world to introduce a minimum price for alcohol in 2018, with a base price per unit of alcohol set at 50p. Last year, MSPs voted to put that rate up to 65p - a 30 per cent hike - in a move designed to reflect the impact of inflation.

It was initially thought the increase would take effect from the start of May last year, but that was pushed back to the end of September.

Medical experts and alcohol recovery groups backed the price increase, but others questioned the effectiveness of the policy. While the move was backed by 88 votes to 28 in the Scottish Parliament, the Scottish Conservatives argued the price hike would disproportionately impact social drinkers.

MUP does not work as a levy and does not generate any dedicated funding for the Government to target health and societal issues caused by excessive drinking. The aim is to reduce the quantity of alcohol being purchased overall and any additional takings go straight to the retailer.

Circana said “symbol” chains, such as Spar, Nisa Local and Londis, and independent retailers in Scotland, have benefited from the MUP increase. With their prices typically already higher, the retailers have increased them less than their supermarket peers and seen less volume drop off as a result.

The hike in MUP has seen consumers pay at least £18.20 for a 70cl bottle of whisky at 40 per cent ABV that previously sold at £14. A 750ml bottle of wine that had cost about £4.50 has risen to a minimum of £5.85.

When it comes to lager, a four-pack of 440ml cans of Tennent’s, at 4 per cent ABV, which used to cost £3.52 in many supermarkets, now sells for a minimum of £4.58. A single 500ml can of similar strength beer or lager went from £1 to £1.30.

Subsequent inflationary pressures and rounding up has pushed many prices even higher.

Figures released in February showed deaths linked to alcohol in Scotland had reached a 15-year high. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), there were 1,277 alcohol-specific deaths north of the Border in 2023 - 22.6 per 100,000 people.

Northern Ireland was close behind at 18.5 deaths per 100,000 people, while the figure was 15 per 100,000 in England, where the debate over MUP is ongoing.

Health Secretary Neil Gray said: "The evidence on the impact of minimum unit pricing is well established. Research commended by internationally-renowned public health experts estimated that our world-leading policy has saved hundreds of lives, likely averted hundreds of alcohol-attributable hospital admissions and contributed to tackling health inequalities.”