The stark, sobering figures behind SQA results as Advanced Higher pass rate collapses to 75%

The SQA results are concerning reading. While nothing should take away from the achievements of individual young people across the country and their - and their teachers - hard work, the results across the system should cause concern for policymakers.

Because there has been a reduction in the data available to measure the performance of the education system over the years, results day data provides the only objective - that is to say not based on judgement - means we have to assess the system on an annual basis. 

The trends

Attainment is down for all at National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher level. This is compared to last year and 2019, which is the last year that direct comparisons can be made because of the disruption to exams and assessment caused by the pandemic from 2020 onwards. 

At Higher level – our ‘gold standard’ qualification – the pass rate is 74.9 per cent. This is equal to 2019 and is the lowest level since the new qualification was introduced in 2015. It follows the fact the pass rate dropped in each of the four consecutive years from 2016 to 2019.

The pass rate of National 5 qualifications is also at its lowest ever level of 77.2 per cent, while the pass rate at Advanced Higher has collapsed - 75.3 per cent this year, compared to 80.2 per cent last year. 

The comparison of results between the richest and the poorest pupils are known as the ‘poverty-related attainment gap’ and are just as concerning. At Higher level, the attainment gap has increased to 17.1 percentage points between the least and most deprived fifth of young people. This is despite the Government asking to ‘be judged’ on their record of ‘substantially eliminating’ it by 2026. The pass rate for the least deprived individuals is now 82.2 per cent. This is down from 84 per cent last year. The pass rate for the most deprived is 65.1 per cent, down from 68 per cent last year. 

Attainment is down for all, and it is accelerated downwards for the most disadvantaged in Scotland. These are stark and sobering figures. 

The implications

It is important to highlight that today’s data reveals a return to the trends seen in 2019. Despite some assertions the pandemic is solely responsible for our current situation, the gap was not closing in the years leading up to 2020. This is a key point. During those years, pass rates were declining and inequality was increasing. Now, we have reverted to that ‘old normal’.

However, the pandemic's disruption continues to affect those in school. This outcome was not inevitable. Anyone working in schools can attest to the complete lack of support provided since Covid to address its impacts. And now, schools face cuts to teacher numbers, further structural reform and a reduction in resources available to them through core budgets.  

As I have previously written in The Scotsman, the culmination of ten years of education being the self-proclaimed number one priority of Government has been savage cuts to core provision, particularly for the poorest local authorities. It is not a sustainable strategy to improve the situation. There will be more analysis to come in the coming days and weeks. In the meantime, we can only hope there is a reflection and assessment of the situation from policymakers. And indeed, a response fitting the scale of the challenge. 

- Barry Black is an education researcher at the University of Glasgow