Where Scotland can hurt Germany in Euro 2024 opener and the tactical battle that awaits
When the draw for Euro 2024 was made back in December, Germany were the top seed many countries wanted.
Listed outside the top 15 in the global rankings and underachievers in the last World Cup, their results throughout 2023 in friendly games had been very underwhelming. Defeats by Belgium, Poland, Colombia, Japan, Turkey and Austria made it one of the worst years in terms of losses for Die Mannschaft. Hansi Flick's reign as Germany head coach came to an abrupt end and Julian Nagelsmann, one of Europe's bright young things in the coaching world, took over in September. Fortunes did not immediately improve, the ex-Bayern Munich boss in charge of those reversals by Turkey and Austria.
But Germany now appear a far tougher proposition than they did when pitched alongside Scotland, Switzerland and Hungary during the draw ceremony in Hamburg. Nagelsmann has guided them to wins over France, Netherlands and Greece so far this year. Perhaps the other result of 2024 can give Scottish fans more optimism, a recent 0-0 draw at home to Ukraine.
Nagelsmann's appointment has reinvigorated Germany - but so much of their improvement can be attributed to the return of veteran playmaker Toni Kroos, who reversed his decision to retire from international football at the start of the year and is back making the German midfield tick over nicely. Kroos is a serial winner, part of a dominant Real Madrid team, and is the most diligent user of the football in the Germany team. His presence allows Germany's attack to be far more fluent and precise, while overall possession stats have improved. Germany are far from a one-man team but Kroos’ influence is great.
Tactically, Scotland will no doubt keep the beadiest of eyes on the 34-year-old. Germany are likely to line up in a 4-3-3 formation which can morph into a 4-2-3-1, with Kroos part of a midfield three alongside Ilkay Gundogan and Robert Andrich. Kroos and Gundogan will push forward, driving the team on, leaving Andrich to anchor in behind them. Full-backs Joshua Kimmich and Maximilian Mittelstadt are tasked with supporting from the flanks, meaning that in possession Germany are set to leave just three players in defensive positions.
As the host nation, there is an expectancy on Germany. Warm favourites to start off the tournament with a win, the German public are wary, though. While the pace and trickery of Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz on the flanks mean that they have the guile to unlock Scotland, the way they struggled to break down stuffy and obdurate opponents in Ukraine and Greece recently has set some alarm bells ringing. Germany play better when two teams play offensively, the game open and play is broken. Scotland are, on paper at least, an awkward match-up for Germany in Munich. Likely to flood the midfield and look for counter-attacks, they'll soak up pressure, draw opposition full-backs forward and exploit the space in behind, Scotland will turn to the Spain playbook of Hampden 2023 to look for a result.
That's why keeping a disciplined, rigid shape will be so important for Scotland in Munich. Steve Clarke may go for a 3-6-1 formation with Che Adams as his sole striker. Lawrence Shankland may have started both warm-up matches, but Adams is a better runner, capable of moving into the channels and pulling Germany centre-halves Antonio Rudiger and Jonathan Tah out of position. Doing this is important as it allows Scott McTominay and John McGinn, Scotland's two most likely offensive midfielders, space to get forward.
Rudiger could be a problem for Scotland. The centre-half is a monster, a human wrecking ball who does not let much past him. Extremely physical and quick, he can also be callous. Thou shalt not pass is his motto. Adams' job will to be move him around, to wrestle with him. The Southampton man has more experience of coming up such a rugged foe in the English Premier League. It is such a shame Lyndon Dykes is not able to battle with him.
The expertise of Scotland set-piece coach Austin MacPhee will be crucial too. The Aston Villa man spoke exclusively to The Scotsman this week and his role is vital at both ends of the pitch. Scotland must tap into every fine margin they can.
Both teams have slight selection quandaries. Clarke will struggle to find a home for all of his midfielders. One of Billy Gilmour, Ryan Christie, John McGinn, Scott McTominay and Callum McGregor will surely miss out. It is interesting that Gilmour did not start in the games against Spain. The deep-lying playmaker is better when you have more of the ball. Germany are expected to dominate possession, so Christie - off the back of an excellent season with Bournemouth - is suited to such a match. In central defence, will Grant Hanley, one of Clarke's so-called lieutenants, get the nod over Ryan Porteous? Both defenders have the propensity to charge in and engage with strikers. It is a big call for the manager given Hanley's recent injury woes.
Nagelsmann's big call comes in goal. Manuel Neuer or Marc-Andre ter Stegen? It looks like Neueur will wear the gloves. Kai Havertz ended the domestic campaign strongly with Arsenal and his goal against Greece on Monday might thrust him ahead of Niclas Fullkrug, an old-fashioned bull of a centre-forward who has played well for Borussia Dortmund. They are both a handful.
Let's be honest, Germany as a whole are a handful. This is a very difficult task for Scotland, up against the host nation in the tournament opener. The Scots, however, can hurt Germany. This is not a vintage version of the former European and World champions. Muscle-memory of Spain at Hampden is likely to be required. Keep an eye on Kroos. Stay compact and disciplined. Do all of that, and who knows ...
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