How Scotland could qualify for Euro 2024 with a win over Cyprus if results go their way

Scotland can book their place at Euro 2024 – and reach a second major finals under Steve Clarke – if they defeat Cyprus on Friday and results elsewhere go their way.

The national side have made their best ever start to a qualification campaign with four straight wins over Cyprus, Spain, Norway and Georgia placing them top of Group A on 12 points with nine goals scored and just one conceded. According to the statistical experts, that has given them a 98.88 per cent chance of finishing in the top two positions and securing direct qualification for the tournament in Germany next year.

That equates to just a 1.12 per cent chance of missing out, but that will be more than enough to keep the Tartan Army on tentertooks given the experience of much of the past three decades when groups have often gone down to the wire only to end with Scotland heartache.

Their most recent finals appearance in the delayed Euro 2020 (played in 2021 year due to covid lockdowns) came after failing to qualify through the group stages but taking advantage of the parachute into the play-offs which resulted in a memorable penalty shoot-out win over Serbia.

Scotland's Andy Robertson and John McGinn at full time after the 2-0 win over Georgia at Hampden in June. (Photo by Craig Williamson / SNS Group)

That was a major achievement for Clarke and his players in reaching the finals of a tournament for the first time in 22 years.

Scotland again have the comfort of knowing a play-off place is waiting for them if required due to winning their Nations League group in brilliant fashion last year but given their current position, anything other than direct qualification would be a major disappointment.

As things stand, Spain, Georgia and Norway could all still surpass Scotland, with difficult trips to Spain and Georgia to follow the encounter in Cyprus before the section concludes with a return clash against Norway and Erling Haaland at Hampden on November 19.

Given their current position, Scotland will hope qualification is already in the bag before that final showdown, and they could be booking their place as early as next week providing three results all go as planned – and it is not beyond the realms of possibility.

Firstly, Spain need to beat Georgia in Tblisi on Friday in a match that will be finished before Scotland kick off in Nicosia.

Providing Scotland then take care of business against Cyprus to move onto 15 points, all eyes would then be on the encounter between Norway and Georgia in Oslo on Tuesday – a match that takes place at the same time as Scotland host England at Wembley.

Should that match in Oslo finish in a draw, both Norway and Georgia would be stuck on five points with just nine left to play for, meaning Scotland would qualify for Euro 2024 as one of the guaranteed top two finishers with Spain the only country left who would be able to overhaul them.

Imagine the scenes inside Hampden if a win over the Auld Enemy could be combined with qualification for the finals…

There is another less likely route to qualification next week that would involve both Georgia v Spain and Norway v Georgia ending in a draw, then Spain also dropping points at home to Cyprus on Tuesday, in which case only one of Spain or Georgia could overtake Scotland, not both, with Norway out of the equation.

Even if the other results don’t pan out as hoped, a win over Cyprus would put still Scotland on the brink of qualification with either Norway or Georgia required to win all of their remaining fixtures and Scotland to lose all theirs to overtake them. 15 points has proven to be enough to secure second place in five-team groups in the past – Wales qualifed as group runners-up for Euro 2020 with 14 points as did Albania for Euro 2016.

However, a note of caution. While Scotland have won all eight of their previous meetings with Cyprus stretching back to 1968, the last three away fixtures have all been won by a single goal.

The most recent trip in November 2019, just six months into Clarke’s tenure, was a particularly hairy encounter with Scotland surviving numerous nervy moments before emerging with a 2-1 victory thanks to goals from Ryan Christie and John McGinn.

It is far from a formality but, given current form and optimism surrounding the national side, it would be a major upset if Scotland were to slip up against Temuri Ketsbaia’s side, who are bottom of the group without a point after three fixtures.