How Vladimir Putin's masterplan for 180,000 more army troops has Ukraine conflict on a knife edge

As Russia’s ambassador in Berlin was talking of a peace plan on German radio, back home, his boss was ploughing ahead with war.

President Vladimir Putin has announced he will increase the size of the Russian army by 180,000 troops to 2.38 million people, making it the second largest in the world after China - bigger than the armies of India or the US.

Of course, the Russian ambassador to Germany, Sergei Nechayev, was not really talking of peace, not in any serious way. He was referring to German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s comments last week that diplomatic efforts should be rekindled in Ukraine - and responding to them with a typical dig at the West.

“I don't know whether this initiative will be welcomed now or not,” he said on Deutschlandfunk this morning. “In any case, we have not yet seen a peace plan, the text of a peace plan ... we are happy to take note of the Chancellor's words. Perhaps this means that the West has come to understand the need for a peace plan.”

It is worth noting Russia did not attend the international “Summit on Peace in Ukraine” held in Switzerland in June.

Indeed, Mr Nechayev may have been speaking with his tongue firmly in his cheek. But the concept of some kind of resolution, with the alternative increasingly looking like global escalation and fears over possible nuclear threats, is something that is becoming a more common point of discussion on the global stage.

While experts believe Russia still has the upper hand in the conflict, there is no doubt the war has taken a new tack in recent months.

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In the western Russian region of Kursk, Russian troops are battling to regain land taken by Ukraine. Meanwhile, drone attacks on Russian soil - and on what Russia believes to be its soil - are increasingly common. In Zaporizhia, a region of Ukraine occupied by Russia since the early days of the conflict, the Russian authorities recently put out a step-by-step guide on what to do in the case of a drone attack.

Here in the West too, relations with Russia are on a knife edge.

Fears over increased Iranian support for Russia have sparked questions over whether Ukraine should be allowed to use Western-supplied long range missiles to fire into Russia.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and US president Joe Biden held a discussion about the issue over the weekend, which fell short of an agreement over the issue, which Mr Putin has threatened would amount to Nato joining the war.

Meanwhile, Russian media is facing a further set of sanctions - this time, not by a country, but by something arguably more powerful - social media.

In the US, a State Department official recently dubbed Russian state media “a fully fledged member of the intelligence apparatus and operation of the Russian government” for the war in Ukraine.

Days later, Meta, which owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Threads, announced a ban on RT - the channel once favoured by former first minister Alex Salmond - Rossiya Segodnya and other related entities due to “foreign interference activity”.

The move will see the brands’ “news” unable to be shared with a foreign audience. A notable exception, of course, is Elon Musk’s X.

While this may not be a deal breaker for Russia’s war ambitions, the practical issue of military recruitment could be a major stumbling block. Russians are inevitably witnessing the impact of the war, with many knowing people who have not come back from the front - or who have returned with life-changing injuries.

The British Ministry of Defence has pointed out Mr Putin’s decision to increase the size of the Russian military - the third time he has done so since the invasion of Ukraine - will undoubtedly come at a cost. The rate at which Russians are signing up to the army has slowed this year compared to 12 months earlier. Some believe Russia will soon be forced to increase life-long benefits afforded to veterans to encourage more to sign up.

“The war in Ukraine has been a costly endeavour for Russia, especially in terms of military personnel,” a statement from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said, pointing to the fact the country has likely suffered around 610,000 casualties during the conflict.

“Tactics based on mass infantry waves has required Russia to continuously replenish front line forces with a constant stream of new recruits.”

Sign-on bonuses were increased last month, in a bid to attract more Russians into the military, in what the MoD calls an “increasingly expensive recruitment strategy for Russia”.

It is possible Russia might not have the appetite for an indefinite drawn-out conflict - whatever its flexing over military might could indicate.

On Tuesday, the German chancellor spoke to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, president of Kazakhstan, where Mr Tokayev urged him to support China’s plan for peace in the region. While the plan set out general principles for ending the war, it did not give specifics. It has recently been backed by Mr Putin, who earlier this year said the Chinese proposal “truly understands” the root causes of the conflict “and its global geopolitical meaning”.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov recently called the proposal a “reasonable plan that the great Chinese civilization proposed for discussion”.

Officially, Kazakhstan maintains neutrality in the conflict and has not recognised the annexations by Russia of Crimea in 2014 or the more recent occupations of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. However, it has not joined Western sanctions.

Mr Scholz rejected the suggestion, saying again Russia needs to take part in discussions about peace. The question is, will it? Ever?