Russian invasion of Ukraine: How returning veterans in Russia could create new social 'elite' which could turn on Vladimir Putin

Russian soldiers are celebrated on Defender of the Fatherland Day

While much of the Soviet Union was living in spartan conditions under Communist rule in the middle of the last century, one sizeable group of people enjoyed a very different lifestyle.

As well as an all-expenses paid trip to a health farm, free public transport and state nursing services for those who needed it, the USSR’s 8.5 million soldiers, who returned from what Russia dubs the Great Patriotic War in 1945, were given other special privileges which the general population could only dream of. These included a free car, a telephone installed in their home, and the right to buy luxury goods and groceries at specialist shops not open to the general public.

Meanwhile, members of the Red Army, who fought in the Russian civil war decades earlier, had also enjoyed special treatment.

Attendees, including relatives of fallen participants in the Russian military action in Ukraine, take part in the opening ceremony of the obelisk in honour of the fallen heroes of the invasion of Ukraine, in Crimea, last week. Picture: AFP via Getty Images

“When they came back, they were seen to be the new base element for constructing Soviet society,” says Dr Steven Main, from the Russian Military Studies Office (RMSO) in Bathgate.

Now, Dr Main said he believed veterans of the Ukraine war would follow in the footsteps of their military ancestors to become a social “elite”, whom he says could eventually become disgruntled and rise up against the Kremlin.

More than 470,000 Russian soldiers are believed to be fighting in Ukraine. While some are trained military personnel, others are ordinary people who have been conscripted, and some are members of mercenary groups, which often recruit directly from prisons.

“When these guys come back, they will be used in a whole series of different positions to bolster Russian society under [Russian president Vladimir] Putin and that could change the whole dynamic of Russian society development for years to come,” said Dr Main.

“The participants of the special military operations are going to be the bedrock of Russian society in the not-too-distant future. They are going to be privileged in a way that hasn't been the case for 20 years.”

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He points to the existence of what was previously known as “Red Army Day”, now “Defender of the Fatherland Day”, which has been celebrated on February 23 since 1919 and sees parades and processions in honour of veterans take place across the country.

"There’s talk they’re going to have their own special day for Special Military Operation [Ukraine war] participants,” said Dr Main, who monitors Russian military journals and media. He said February 24 – the day Mr Putin invaded Ukraine two years ago – would be the likely date.

"They’re going to get so many different perks: pensions rights, access to higher education, cheaper air fares, cheaper train fares, everything,” Dr Main said. “They are really going to be a new privileged elite and that’s going to create problems for Russian society when they actually start assuming political power.”

There is a long history of rewarding veterans.

From 1979 to 1989, the USSR was embroiled in the longest conflict of Soviet times, the Soviet-Afghan War. While initially, those who had served in this war were not deemed to be “veterans” – this was a term reserved for those who had fought in the Great Patriotic War – by 1983, a Special Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party and the Council of Ministers was passed. This meant participants of the Afghan operation had the right to privileges in reward for “successful achievement of the special tasks of the Soviet government”.

But Dr Main warned Russia could struggle to live up to the expectations of Ukraine veterans, fuelling rebellion.

"A privileged class, especially if it’s sizeable – and this will be sizeable – could be a problem,” he said. “What happens if they come home expecting homes fit for heroes and the state doesn’t live up to expectations?

"Even if Russia wins, it’s not going to be bread and roses for everyone. At the present moment in time, everybody's obviously flying under the flag. But a victory itself could be a double edged sword [for the Kremlin].”

An attempted coup occurred in June last year by Russian private mercenary organisation, the Wagner Group, which had been fighting on the side of the Russian army in Ukraine.

Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed all military sites in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don were under their control and began a march towards Moscow.

However, the group quickly abandoned its plan in a bizarre series of events which eventually saw Mr Prigozhin sent to Belarus. Shortly afterwards, he was killed in a plane crash.

Dr Natasha Danilova, senior lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of Aberdeen, pointed to recent rule changes which have seen veteran benefits rolled out to not only the Russian army, but also mercenary and militia groups like Wagner.

“Since January 2024, state-provided welfare is now available to soldiers from all kinds of military units, soldiers from paramilitary forces, local militias and mercenaries, many of whom were prisoners,” she said. “They all are now considered as ‘veterans of combat operations’, those who participated in ‘special military operations’ – a direct reference to Ukraine. The state expanded veterans’ benefits in a record time and at the record level. This makes this group one of the most privileged in Russia.”

Following the war in Afghanistan, organisations such as Russian Union of Veterans of Afghanistan received tax relief for business activities to invest in veterans’ futures. Some of these investments ended up in veterans’ groups controlling large swathes of real estate or security companies.

While group benefits like this have not yet been offered to Ukraine veterans, possibly due to fears from Mr Putin of possible rebellion in the wake of the Wagner uprising last year, Dr Danilova said she believed it could be something that is introduced in future. However, she fears that any group benefits could result in investment in criminal activity.

"This privileged status granted to a very diverse group who now come out of fighting in Ukraine, including mercenaries from Wagner, means that they are now all protected by the law on the ‘discreditation’ and ‘fake news’ of any force fighting for Russia in Ukraine,” she said.

"Any critique of these groups is punishable by a criminal sentence, including instance when veterans might use benefits for their own enrichment through illegal means, a practice to which some veterans’ organisations and informal groups resorted previously.”