The 7 battleground states that will decide whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins US presidential election

They are the battlegrounds that will determine the outcome of the US election. Here, The Scotsman looks in detail at the key states in play as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump vie to reach the White House.

Pennsylvania 

Once part of the so-called ‘blue wall’ Democratic stronghold, the fifth most populous state is central to the race for the White House, with 19 electoral college votes up for grabs - the most of any of the seven battleground states. According to a forecasting model devised by statistician, Nate Silver, both candidates have at least a 85 per cent chance of winning the entire election if they secure the keystone state.

Thanks to the Scots emigre, Andrew Carnegie, Pennsylvania was once an industrial powerhouse, and home to some of the biggest steel firms in the world. But amid a familiar narrative of post-industrial decline, the Harris and Trump campaigns have expended considerable time and expense in an effort to woo voters. Mr Trump won the state in 2016, with President Joe Biden retaking it four years later. This time around, with the polls exceptionally tight, the outcome is too close to call.

America seems more divided than ever as it prepares to choose between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the US presidential election on Tuesday. Picture: Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images

Michigan

As with Pennsylvania, Michigan voted for Mr Trump in 2016 before swinging to Mr Biden, testament to its diverse make-up of voters, who include rural Republicans and urban Democrats in the likes of Detroit. It has backed the winner in each of the past four presidential elections, and with 16 electoral college votes to play for, it too has witnessed heavy campaigning by the Trump and Harris campaigns. 

With over one million jobs in the car industry, the sector is of crucial importance to the state’s electorate, and unsurprisingly, Ms Harris has focused on her manufacturing plans in her messaging to voters. A majority of polls have put the incumbent vice-president in the front seat, but given her lead is within the three to four percentage point margin error, there is still all to play for.

Wisconsin

The third of the Midwestern battleground states, Wisconsin also featured prominently in the last weekend of campaigning. A one-time reliable blue Rust Belt state, the outcome of four of the past six elections was decided by less than a single percentage point. This time around the margins are expected to be similarly tight, and the state’s importance to Republicans was demonstrated by the fact the party held its nominating convention in Milwaukee this summer.

As with Michigan, the polls suggest Ms Harris has a slender lead, and the Democrats have been working hard to not only consolidate support in Milwaukee and the state capital, Madison, but win over rural voters who have been increasingly drawn to the Trump campaign. By the same token, however, the polls also indicate a shift towards the Republicans in urban areas.

The Democrats are slight favourites to take Wisconsin, but the Republicans are not far behind. Picture: Getty | Canva/Getty Images

Arizona

The latest polls indicate the Republican and Democrat campaigns are tied in Arizona, a state where Ms Harris and Mr Trump have been targeting voters on very specific issues. The Democratic nominee has been pushing hard on abortion access. Indeed, the ballot for the election also proposes changing the state constitution so as to create a “fundamental right” to abortion”.

Given Arizona is home to the busiest stretch of the US-Mexico border for illegal crossings, the Trump campaign has doubled down on its rhetoric around immigration in its pitch to Arizona voters, building on nationwide messaging that promised the biggest deportation operation in US history. Having first voted for Mr Trump in 2016 before switching to Mr Biden in 2020 - the first time it had backed a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996 - the GOP will be hoping the state swings red again.

Nevada

Despite the fact voters in Nevada backed the Democratic candidate in each of the past four presidential elections, the polls for the state have been far from consistent during this cycle. Before Mr Biden dropped out of the race, Mr Trump enjoyed a double digit lead, but now that he is up against Ms Harris, that support has fallen away, with the vice-president ahead by around three percentage points. 

The economy is at the heart of the campaign in one of the least densely populated US states. It has one of the highest unemployment rates anywhere in the country - the legacy of the pandemic’s impact, which led to major job losses across hotels and casinos as the tourism market ground to a halt. 

Home to Las Vegas - the entertainment capital of the world - Nevada is a key election battleground. Picture: Getty | Canva/Getty Images

Georgia

Another swing state that turned blue for Mr Biden four years ago - the first time it had backed a Democrat since Mr Clinton 32 years ago - Mr Trump currently has a lead of around two percentage points, according to polling. More than half of the state’s population reside in the city area of Atlanta, which has traditionally voted for Democrats, but it spans rural conservative swathes where Mr Trump enjoys considerable support. 

In all likelihood, he will need that backing more than Ms Harris does if he is to realise his ambition of returning to the Oval Office. The latter has spent a lot of time appealing to black voters and minority communities in the state, but pollsters believe she needs high turnout to overcome the advantage held by the Republicans in Georgia’s rural regions.

North Carolina

An average of state polling in the Tar Heel reveals a similar picture to other battlegrounds, with Mr Trump only marginally ahead by a single percentage point. Despite, or perhaps because of, that tiny advantage, the Republican nominee has spent more time in North Carolina than he has in Pennsylvania, with some reports suggesting his team is nervous about their prospects.

The state has given its 16 electoral college votes to the Republican candidate in each of the past three elections, and it was the only battleground state seized by Mr Trump in 2020. The Democrats, sensing a chance to rewrite history, have been targeting black voters in the likes of Charlotte and Raleigh.