Midterm election polls: What do the latest polls suggest and will Republicans take control?

Polls have been famously undermined in recent elections, however, what is clear is that the US midterm elections will result in a significant turnout.

The latest polling for the US midterm elections
The latest polling for the US midterm elections

Two thirds of US voters are expected to show up to the polls in the crucial elections with many states on a knife edge.

What do the latest polls show?

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

According to polls the likeliest scenario is that Republicans take control of the House, with Democrats keeping control of the Senate, however, this could change in the build up to the midterm elections.

Recent polling shows that Republican voters and men are slightly more likely to vote despite hope from the Democrats that the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade will fire up their base.

Read More
US midterm elections: When are the US midterm elections, how do they work and wi...

FiveThiryEight, the polling website, says Republicans are "slightly" favoured to win the House, and Democrats "slightly" favoured to win the Senate.

A deluxe model of their polling ran showed that based on current polling, the Republicans are set to win the House 70 out of 100 times and that Republicans had an 80 per cent chance of returning 209-242 seats in the House of Representatives.

Rather than a straight win however, polls suggest that the midterm elections could come down to key seats such as Virginia’s 2nd District and Pennsylvania’s 7th District.

The same poll found that Democrats would win the Senate 66 times out of 100 with Democrats having an 8- per cent chance of holding 47 and 54 seats.

In July, this poll was roughly 50/50.

FiveThirtyEight found that Republicans have plenty of opportunities for pick-ups, especially in Nevada and Georgia although Herschel Walker’s scandals may impact the race, but that Democrats, appear to be on firmer footing in Arizona and could even pick up a seat in Pennsylvania.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

The pollsters stated that the Republicans had been favourites until the overturning of Roe v Wade, but that they still were favoured to gain control.

Republicans or Democrats would need to pick up only one seat to gain control of the Senate.

If the Republicans do take the Senate, Kevin McCarthy will replace Democrat Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, and become the third in line to the presidency.

How popular is Joe Biden according to recent polls?

Joe Biden has seen an increase in popularity of late, with his lowest polling having 37.9 per cent approval. This has now risen to 42.5 per cent. 52.1 per cent disapprove of the president.