'Vladimir Putin does not want peace': What US decision on Ukraine military aid means for Russia's next move

Fears that move could embolden Russia to intensify conflict

It is a major foreign policy development that would have been considered unconscionable by previous US administrations confronted with an ongoing war waged by Russia against a sovereign European nation, and one that many fear could intensify the bloodshed.

The decision by US president Donald Trump to pause US military aid to Ukraine is arguably the biggest boost to Russian president Vladimir Putin in his country’s three year-long campaign of aggression against its neighbour.

While Washington and Moscow have framed the move as one that could expedite a peace deal, some experts believe it will only embolden Russia in a conflict that has claimed the lives of more than 12,000 civilians in Ukraine.

Explaining the move, which will have a major impact on the provision of key supplies of artillery, rockets, anti-tank weapons and armoured vehicles, a White House official said: “The president has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.”

The decision by the US to pause military aid for Ukraine comes on the back of the row between President Zelensky and President Trump in the White House. Picture: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images | Getty

Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Mr Putin, echoed those talking points, describing it as a decision “which could really push the Kyiv regime to a peace process”.

Asked on a briefing call with journalists if Russia was ready to stop fighting if the US suspended arms supplies to Ukraine, Mr Peskov said: “We see that some European countries are declaring that they will continue to provide comprehensive assistance. That is, they will probably try to compensate for the decreasing volume of ammunition. But of course, the main volume has so far come from the US and through US channels.

“Therefore, we’ll see. If the US suspends these supplies, it will probably be the best contribution to peace.”

But there are significant doubts over whether Russia wants that outcome, an argument advanced earlier this week by Simon Johnson, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Putin does not want peace and he’s not going to settle,” he said. “He’s enjoying the war. It’s awful. But he doesn’t want to end the war.”

The pause in military aid will have significant impact on supplies to the Ukraine military. Picture: Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty | AFP via Getty Images

For many, the halt in military aid will be viewed as the latest escalation in a dangerous game of brinksmanship by Mr Trump following his combustible meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The pause also supports views the Trump administration is moving the US closer to Russia, something Moscow has acknowledged. Mr Peskov pointed out on Sunday the US was “rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations”, adding: “This largely aligns with our vision.”

The potential perils of that geopolitical shift cannot be underestimated. Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia, said that far from bringing about peace, the pause in aid would encourage the opposite outcome, warning Mr Trump was “only encouraging Putin to seize more territory”.

Similar fears have also been expressed by Razom for Ukraine, a Ukrainian advocacy group. The organisation said by halting military assistance to Ukraine, Mr Trump was “hanging Ukrainians out to dry and giving Russia the green light to keep marching west”.

“By stopping military aid, President Trump is ensuring that Putin has no real reason to stop his war,” the group said. “If Ukraine is alone, why would he stop fighting?”