Who are the big name MPs at risk of losing their seats at the general election?

A host of senior MPs face losing their seats at the general election.

It is no secret that the polls make grim reading for the Conservatives, who are widely expected to lose when the election is called.

This week that expectation escalated through cold, hard data, after a YouGov survey predicted Labour would win more than 400 seats, in a result that would outperform the historic 1997 result of Tony Blair.In polling that sent shockwaves through Westminster, it also placed the Conservatives on just 155, seeing a series of big names, including Tory leadership candidates, facing standing at a count later this year to cheers from opposition activists.

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The MRP constituency projection models first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions, then data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats. While far from a certainty, it’s considered a more accurate method of polling.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is one of many senior Tories who are facing uphill battles to retain their seats.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is one of many senior Tories who are facing uphill battles to retain their seats.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is one of many senior Tories who are facing uphill battles to retain their seats.

It also made grim reading for the SNP, with the party predicted to fall from 43 MPs in Westminster to just 19, a result that would be a huge blow to Humza Yousaf’s hope of once again asking for independence.

The stunning forecast comes just days after a Survation poll which said the Tories could be left with fewer than 100 seats, with the party almost wiped out across Britain.

While party figures are quick to dismiss polling, particularly when it makes for grim reading, the feeling among many MPs is that it’s not so far away from what they are experiencing on the ground. One former cabinet minister told Scotland on Sunday they couldn’t plan for a leadership contest to replace Rishi Sunak, as they didn’t know how many candidates would be left. An SNP MP, who is expected to hold their seat remarked it was “no longer safe. No seat is”.

With that in mind, here are the biggest Tory figures tipped to either lose their seats, or face battles far closer than anyone could have predicted after Boris Johnson’s seismic victory in 2019.

Rishi Sunak

The most high profile possible casualty in the election could be the Prime Minister himself.

Based on 2019’s results, Mr Sunak’s new Richmond and Northallerton seat should be a safe Conservative hold.

However, according to Survation, the Prime Minister has just a 2.4 per cent lead over Labour, suggesting his seat is very much in play.Given the resources likely to be deployed in the seat, a loss seems almost impossible, but it speaks volumes to the wider picture it could even be considered in play.

Jeremy Hunt

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Far less secure in his seat is the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who YouGov placed fractionally behind the Lib Dems in his Godalming and Ash seat.

Currently enjoying a majority of 8,817, a national collapse in the Tory vote would make him vulnerable, and the Liberal Democrats have made it a top target.

In a sign of his nervousness over retaining, records show Mr Hunt has given more than £100,000 of his own money to his constituency Conservative party to bolster his chances of re-election. In recent months, he has also been far more vocal on social media about his constituency work.

James Cleverly

With a majority of 24,673, the Home Secretary should be safe as houses in Braintree, but the polling says otherwise.

According to Survation, Mr Cleverly is among at risk from Labour, despite winning more than half of the vote last time out.

Grant Shapps

Another minister tipped to lose his seat is the defence secretary, Grant Shapps.

Widely viewed to be considering a leadership bid after the election, Survation polling predicts he won’t be an MP by then.

The MP for Welwyn Hatfield since 2005, he has a majority of 10,995, and the seat is 115th on Labour’s list of targets. It would take a very bad night for the Tories for this one to fall.

Penny Mordaunt

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One of the biggest names on this list, Penny Mordaunt has run for the leadership twice, and is considered a favourite to replace Mr Sunak after the election.However, polls show the Commons Leader losing her Portsmouth North seat to Labour, despite winning it by more than 15,000 vote in 2019.

Michael Gove

Commanding a majority of more than 18,000, Michael Gove is deemed at risk, rather than categorically facing the end.

The levelling up secretary has been the MP for Surrey Heath since 2005, and his exit would mean yet another architect of Brexit had left the Commons.

Jacob Rees-Mogg

In one of the more surprising polling details, YouGov says Jacob Rees-Mogg is polling behind his Labour rival.North East Somerset is a traditionally Conservative seat, and one the old Etonian has held since 2010, winning a majority of 14,729 at the last election.A passionate defender of both Mr Johnson and Liz Truss, Mr Rees-Mogg has since swapped the cabinet for GB News.

Michelle Donelan

Michelle Donelan is yet another serving minister deemed to be at risk, with YouGov polling showing the science secretary will lose her Chippenham seat to the Liberal Democrats.

Iain Duncan Smith

A former Tory leader, Iain Duncan Smith has a majority of just 1,262 in Chingford and Woodford Green, with his seat one of Labour top targets.

He has held the seat since 1992, but it will be a major shock if the quiet man continues turning up the volume.

David TC Davies

According to YouGov, the Welsh secretary will lose his seat in Monmouth, where he has been the MP since 2005.



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