SNP could slip to just 19 seats after next election, poll suggests

The poll predicts Labour would enjoy a majority of 154.

New polling makes grim reading for SNP MPs hoping to return to Westminster at the next election.

The SNP would lose more than half of their seats and slip to second place in Scotland as Labour enjoyed a landslide victory across the UK, a new poll shows.

A survey of more than 18,000 people predicts Sir Keir Starmer’s party would win more than 400 seats, with a majority of 154 – almost double Boris Johnson’s victory of 2019.

The polling, conducted by YouGov, put Labour on 41 per cent support, the Conservatives on 24 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent. Reform UK was also on 12 per cent, the Greens were on seven per cent, while the SNP was on three per cent.

The polling showed that the SNP would lose 29 seats and hold just 19, with Labour taking 28 seats north of the border.

The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats would win five each.

Across the UK, the poll forecasts Labour will win 403 seats, a gain of 201, while the Tories will crash to just 155 seats - a loss of 210.

If accurate, the result would be an even worse defeat for the Tories than 1997, when the rise of Sir Tony Blair saw them win just 165 seats.

They also suggest Sir Keir is closing in on Downing Street, a full 27 years since Labour’s longest-serving prime minister first took office. In that election, Sir Tony won 418 out of the available 659 House of Commons seats.

It also predicts a host of senior figures will lose their seats, including the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, cabinet ministers Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt, as well as former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith.

The forecast is especially troublesome for Ms Mordaunt, who has run for leader twice, and is widely considered as one of the favourites to replace Rishi Sunak after the election.

Other cabinet ministers set to lose their seats include Transport Secretary Mark Harper, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Science Secretary Michelle Donelan and Wales Secretary David TC Davies.

The Liberal Democrats, who are targeting the so-called "Blue Wall" of Tory heartlands, are forecast to gain 38 seats.

Despite their growing voting intention share in recent weeks, Reform UK are not projected to win any seats, instead placing second in 36.

Speaking on Tuesday, the Prime Minister said he wants to hold a general election when people “feel that things are improving”, and repeated his aim of it taking place in the “second-half of the year”.

Responding to the poll, Scottish Labour Deputy Leader Jackie Baillie said: “After years of division and decline under both the SNP and the Tories, Scotland is crying out for change.

“Across the UK, voters are getting ready to kick out this rotten Tory government and here in Scotland we can lead the way in making that happen.

“Labour is taking nothing for granted and we will continue working tirelessly to earn voters’ trust.

“Change is possible and Labour is ready to deliver it, with our plan to make work pay, cut bills, renew public services and strengthen our economy.”

While SNP deputy Westminster leader Mhairi Black said: “Labour doesn’t need Scotland to win the election, but Scotland needs SNP MPs to defend Scottish interests at every opportunity.”