What is behind the push to split the Scottish Tories and form a new centre-right party

How can the centre-right win in Scotland? That is the question Tory politicians and strategists are grappling with amid the looming contest to replace Douglas Ross as leader north of the border. Some believe there is only one answer – a break-away party.

The idea was previously mooted by Murdo Fraser in 2011, when he lost a leadership election to Ruth Davidson. But it is once again gaining traction as Scottish Conservative MSPs look to the future following a difficult general election.

Mr Fraser will return from a holiday in the United States this weekend amid speculation he is considering another tilt at the top job. It is thought Russell Findlay, who is the early favourite in the race and opposes any split, could formally announce his candidacy next week.

Douglas Ross previously announced he would quit as Scottish Tory leader. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Andy Maciver, who worked on Mr Fraser’s previous leadership bid, is a long-term advocate for a new centre-right party. "There is zero mathematical or political chance of the Scottish Tory party ever being in government [in Scotland],” he told The Scotsman.

"That makes Scotland unique, anywhere in Europe, as being the only country that doesn't have a viable government of the centre-right. Nowhere else has this. Not a single other EU country has that situation.

"So if you start from that point of saying 'right, OK, how do you create something that can get into government?' The only answer to that is to not have any relationship, formal or informal, with the Conservative Party. There is no other answer.”

Mr Maciver, a former Scottish Tory communications chief, said there were many MSPs sympathetic to the idea of a split from the UK party, but there are different views about what this might look like. He wants a new, distinct party to contest elections to the Scottish Parliament.

Murdo Fraser MSP

Tory MSP Miles Briggs backed Mr Fraser in 2011, but now says he will support any leadership bid by Mr Findlay. "Everything in politics is about timing,” he told The Scotsman.

"When I supported Murdo in the run up to the last bid he did for this, it was because we had what was a five-year window to potentially look at this and how that would operate, to keep relationships with the UK party, but also to have that time in politics to create a space for the public in Scotland to understand what a new party is all about.

"On the timescale we've got, I think we'll have something between 18 and 17 months to try to regroup, think about our message for [the Holyrood election in] 2026, and I think the public would just look at us and say 'off you go and fight amongst yourselves, we're more interested in what you're going to do about the issues', like cost of living, things like that, rather than very much party structure. When you're setting up a party, it becomes about party constitutions, you name it, rather than issues the public will want to hear us on.

"So I think now is not the time for us to be able to even do that, even if we wanted to as a party. What we need to do is focus on the voters for 2026, what they want us to do. And as the official opposition, I think we've got a really important role to be playing over the next two years and into the next parliament, hopefully to grow the party and win more seats, and you're not going to do that by tearing the party down and relaunching it, I don't think."

Mr Briggs added: "Even if we did rebrand, people would still see us as the Tories.”

Mr Maciver accepted there was not enough time between now and the next Holyrood election for a new party to properly establish itself. But he said it does not matter, because “the party as it is right now is going to get monstered in 2026 anyway”.

Mr Maciver said he believed there was a longer-term prize at stake. He also insisted money would not be an issue. "There's millions, millions of pounds sitting on the sidelines waiting to be invested into a pro-Scottish party of the centre-right,” he said. "There would be more money for this party than the Scottish Conservative party has ever received, even at its height."

Since the 2014 independence referendum, the Scottish Tories have emphasised their staunchly unionist opposition to the SNP. But Mr Maciver argued independence is “dead” and the debate needs to move on.

Liz Smith, the Scottish Tory finance spokeswoman who backed Mr Fraser in 2011, has said the idea of a separate party “has to be part of the mix” once again.

"It's important that we decide what it is that is not appealing to the electorate in Scotland, and how we're going to address that,” she told The Scotsman. "And I've got very strong views about what I think we should be doing, but I'm not going to put anything forward just now, because I think the time is not right for that just yet. We don't know what the process is apart from anything else."

Jamie Greene, another MSP who is considering running for the leadership, said he is "open-minded" about the party's future. "I wouldn't say I'm necessarily on board with one outcome over another,” he said. “We've yet to hear what others have to say.

"Some of the other people who have been mentioned as wanting to run will have their own strategy and what they think will work, how we recover, and I really want to hear from them. I want to hear what their ideas are."

Mr Greene said he is keen to see what direction the UK party chooses "before we finalise our position on what our relationship with it is".

It is believed upwards of half a dozen MSPs are considering putting their names forward for the Scottish Tory leadership. Party chiefs are consulting about the process, with further details expected in coming weeks.

Whoever emerges as the new leader will have a difficult task, whatever path they decide on. One MSP was blunt about the burden they will face. "In any political party, 99.9 per cent of it is hassle,” they said. “It isn't an enjoyable job."