Westminster year ahead: MPs brace for an election, but Tories worry how many of them will be left standing

Westminster is preparing for an election and a change in Government, with Tory MPs losing faith in Rishi Sunak.

With polling that shows the Prime Minister is less trusted on every single issue than Sir Keir Starmer, and Labour enjoying a double digit lead, Rishi Sunak has it all to do.

While no general election has been confirmed, speculation of an early poll is mounting, given the announcement of an early budget to take place on March 6.

This all comes against the backdrop of the UK experiencing 15 years of relative decline, with flatlining wages costing the average worker £10,700 a year in lost pay growth.

It promises to be yet another seismic year in Westminster. Picture: Jordan Pettitt/PA Wire

The Resolution Foundation says the living standards of the lowest-income households in the UK are £4,300 lower than their French equivalents. The think-tank has also warned that household incomes are not expected to reach the pre cost-of-living crisis peak until at least 2027, with income inequality in the UK higher too than any other large European country.

This, along with rebuilding the economy after the impact of former prime minister Liz Truss, Covid and the war in Ukraine leaves politicians with serious issues, and no clear immediate fix.

Speaking to MPs from all parties, they told The Scotsman that with uncertainty over the actual election date, and an expectation that Labour will win, it was hard to predict anything, and even more difficult to pass legislation. They argue politics is at a standstill, with policy unable to pass or be raised due to the uncertainty.

One Labour MP told The Scotsman they had pressing issues in their constituency, but a lack of clarity was making it harder to address them.

“Even everything in the Autumn Statement only takes us up to March, so that’s hardly a long-term plan for a brighter future,” they said. “If you've got a particular campaign or issue you'd use adjournment debate, start doing lobbying, then meetings with civil servants. There's a route.

“But when you don't know if it's in three months or 12 months, you can't really plan anything. You can't work pro-actively.”

Deeply critical of the UK Government, the Labour MP predicted more culture war debates, and little real support when the “country is on its knees”.

They added: “We’ve barely been here since July, so where is the parliamentary time? It even ends early for Christmas. Everyone blames the blob for policy being too slow, but they’re not empowered to make decisions, they are led by ministerial direction.

“How does that work when we go through them so quickly? New ministers come in, work out the brief, then they're offski again, and the whole cycle continues”.

The criticism was also raised by a Government minister, who told The Scotsman while the “economy and election” were the big issues, even running a department was harder in the uncertainty.

They said: “I’m trying to run a department, but I don’t know how long I’ve got here, and whether any policy will even happen in the event Labour win.

“It’s deeply frustrating but, given the polling, I think it’s probably better we delay the election anyway and go for winter. It gives us more time to focus on policy, and longer for the polls to narrow”.

Another minister lamented the state of the Tory party, telling this newspaper they were “completely f***d”, and it was all of their own making. Referencing the Rwanda scheme, which the Government narrowly won at a second reading, they suggested the fallout from that would be fundamental to how next year went.

“It’s a policy we didn’t need to do, that’s made a rod for our own back,” the Tory MP said. “The right won’t accept it, and any amendments to make it harder at all will see it killed by the left. How we handle that will be vital to where we can get next year”.

Another Tory MP added: “If the economy is in better shape, and we’re sending flights to Rwanda, we’ve got a chance. But obviously the window is narrowing.”

The spat over Rwanda has threatened to engulf Mr Sunak’s premiership, but Government sources insisted he could get through it.

One said: “There remains a window for us to win the next general election, but it depends on MPs realising they can support the hardest measures ever, or complain and get nothing. Delivering on immigration is a key part of winning the next election, and they should ask themselves if they really want to oppose it and make Keir Prime Minister.”

Given the precociousness of Mr Sunak’s position, another key factor for the year ahead will be any attempt to replace him, with MPs now openly on manoeuvres.

Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are all believed to have their eyes on the Tory leadership, even if the role is soon to become leader of the opposition.

Speaking to one former minister, they dismissed those sounding out support, warning the polling was so bad they had no idea which MPs would be even left to contest it.

They said: “It's hard to make plans because there's going to be an election. My focus is solely on my constituents because I can't really control anything else.

“There’s almost certainly going to be a new Tory leader, but I can’t really plan anything as I don’t know the scale of the defeat. It’s just about making sure there is someone left.”

In Labour circles, the focus is on maintaining the poll lead, and keeping everyone on message. Despite anger from the left, Sir Keir has created a disciplined party, and one happy to keep reservations quiet with a win so close.

Speaking to figures from across the political spectrum, the key predictions are an election and eventual Tory leadership race. When Mr Sunak is brave enough to call an election date and whether he can somehow survive it will shape the next five years of British politics.