UK by-elections: Labour's massive Wellingborough and Kingswood by-election wins are 'no surprise', says Sir John Curtice

Labour overturned two huge Conservative majorities in Wellingborough and Kingswood

Rishi Sunak has insisted the circumstances surrounding the Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections were “particularly challenging” after suffering a double defeat that Sir Keir Starmer said showed people were “crying out for change”.

In his first remarks since the votes, the Prime Minister said there was “not a huge amount of enthusiasm” for Labour despite the party flipping Tory majorities in the tens of thousands overnight.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party overcame a majority of more than 18,500 to take Wellingborough in a swing of 28.5 per cent – the second biggest from the Conservatives to Labour in any post-war by-election.

Gen Kitchen celebrates with her family after being declared winner in the Wellingborough by-election. Photo: Joe Giddens/PA Wire

The Conservatives also lost their majority of more than 11,000 in Kingswood with a swing of 16.4 per cent to Labour.

The results mean the Conservative Government has endured more by-election losses than any administration since the 1960s, surpassing the eight defeats suffered by John Major in the run-up to Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide victory.

Speaking to broadcasters on a visit to a police station in Harlow, Essex, on Friday, Mr Sunak said: “Midterm elections are always difficult for incumbent governments, and the circumstances of these elections were of course particularly challenging.

“Now, I think if you look at the results, very low turnout, and it shows that we’ve got work to do to show people that we are delivering on their priorities and that’s what I’m absolutely determined to do, but also shows that there isn’t a huge amount of enthusiasm for the alternative in Keir Starmer and the Labour Party, and that’s because they don’t have a plan.”

Damien Egan makes a victory speech after winning the Kingswood by-election. Image: Carl Court/Getty Images.

The Wellingborough by-election was triggered by the six-week Commons suspension of former Tory MP Peter Bone after an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct, which he denies.

Gen Kitchen, who won this seat by 6,436 votes, said: “The people of Wellingborough have spoken for Britain. This is a stunning victory for the Labour Party and must send a message from Northamptonshire to Downing Street.”

The Kingswood vote came after former Conservative MP Chris Skidmore resigned in protest at Government legislation to boost North Sea oil and gas drilling.

Damien Egan, who won the seat by 2,501 votes, blamed Mr Sunak’s “recession” and leaving people “paying more and getting less” for his victory.

Polling expert Sir John Curtice. Picture: John Devlin

Sir Keir said Labour had seen “Tory switchers” making up part of its vote share, but also emphasised that he had warned his team against complacency in the run-up to this year’s general election.

“The progress we’ve now made [is] from the worst results since 1935 to being now credible contenders – and that is all we are – for the 2024 election,” he told BBC Breakfast.

“We’re trying to do, if you like, what Kinnock, what Smith and Blair did, over 13 or 14 years, in four short years.”

Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates, co-chairs of the New Conservatives grouping of MPs mainly from the 2019 intake, said: “Voters are not flocking to Labour. They want a genuine alternative to the consensus politics of the last two decades – high taxes, low security, managed decline.”

They added: “There is still time, but our party must change course. We are calling on the Government to adapt to the reality that the by-elections reveal. Our target voters want a different and a better offer.”

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said Labour’s two by-election wins in England came as no surprise.

“In the second half of last year, the Conservatives lost three seats to Labour thanks in each case to swings of more than 20 per cent,” he told the BBC.

“The standing of the parties in the opinion polls has changed little since then. On average, Labour are still as much as 17 points ahead, little different from where they have been ever since last summer. Consequently, big swings seemed on the cards.”

Sir John said the Conservatives now “have a mountain to climb” after the “terrible result” to ensure their huge loss in the 1997 general election does not repeat itself in 2024.

However, the polling expert said the results also showed Labour cannot assume they will automatically pick up votes from the Conservatives, as the by-elections showed many discontented Tory voters have supported Reform UK instead.

The anti-EU, right-wing Reform UK had its best by-election results since rebranding from the Brexit Party in 2021. The party came third in both by-elections, with 13 per cent of the vote in Wellingborough and 10.4 per cent of the vote in Kingswood.

Sir John said: “The anti-EU, anti-immigration Reform UK party had its best by-election performances by far. These performances are consistent with polling that has recorded a marked increase in the party’s support in recent months.

“According to the polls, most of the party’s support is coming from the Conservatives. For every voter who has switched since 2019 from Conservative to Labour, there is another one that has switched to Reform UK. True, not all of Reform’s support is coming from those who might otherwise have voted Conservative if Reform were not standing.

“Nevertheless, Tory MPs will now be even more concerned that the determination of Reform’s leader, Richard Tice, that his party should contest all Tory-held seats could cost them dearly.”

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said of the by-election results: “This is another step in the right direction, but these are by-election wins – not a single vote has been cast in the general election yet.

“It is clear people want rid of this rotten Tory government. Between now and the next general election, we will spend every day showing why people should vote Labour, so we can get rid of this Tory government, maximise Scotland’s influence and change every part of our country for the better.”