The 5,844 reasons why Reform UK is confident of overtaking Tories in Scotland

Reform UK has its sights set on success at the 2026 Holyrood election.

Reform UK says it hopes to overtake the Conservatives in Scotland after a post-Christmas surge in numbers.

The party says it now has 5,844 members in Scotland and expects it to continue to grow.

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In September, the latest membership figures for the Conservatives was 6,941 - and Reform UK says it hopes to exceed this number very soon.

Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage.Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage.
Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage. | Stefan Rousseau/Press Association.

A Reform UK source told The Scotsman: “This means we are approaching 6,000 members.

“That will continue to keep growing. The last figures from the Tories was 6,941 and I absolutely think that will have fallen.”

If Reform overtake the Conservatives, it would make them the third biggest party in Scotland behind the SNP and Scottish Labour.

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Accounts from this summer show the SNP has 64,525 members - there are no recent figures for Scottish Labour members, but in 2021 The Daily Record reported it had 16,467 members.

This comes after party leader Nigel Farage revealed on Boxing Day that Reform UK membership across the whole of the UK had exceeded 131,680 - this is the number the Conservatives recorded during their leadership election last month.

Posting on X, Mr Farage said: “The youngest political party in British politics has just overtaken the oldest political party in the world.

“Reform UK are now the real opposition.”

It is understood party membership increased by 10 per cent in the last few days to overtake the Conservatives.

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The latest polling for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election suggests Reform UK could perform well at the polls - and could be giving the Scottish Conservatives some problems.

A recent poll for The Sunday Times, which was then analysed by polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, suggested Reform UK would win 13 seats at the 2026 Holyrood election - only six seats behind the Conservatives.

The poll predicted the SNP would remain the largest party in Holyrood on 59 seats, followed by Scottish Labour on 22, the Conservatives on 19, the Lib Dems on 11 and the Scottish Greens on seven.

At Reform UK’s Scottish party conference last month the party said Mr Farage would remain the face of the Scottish campaign, despite not standing as a candidate himself.

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