Support for Labour in Scotland plummets after Chancellor Rachel Reeves's budget

Support for Labour in Scotland has plummeted in the wake of Rachel Reeves’s budget.

A new poll suggests Labour’s popularity has dipped so low it would be almost impossible for Scottish leader Anas Sarwar to win the 2026 Holyrood election and form the next Scottish Government.

The Norstat poll for The Sunday Times put support for Scottish Labour in the constituency vote at 23 per cent, a drop of seven points since August and the lowest since Nicola Sturgeon quit as First Minister back in March 2023.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar | Andy Buchanan/Getty Images

Meanwhile in the regional list, support for Labour fell by six points to 22 per cent.

This would leave Labour with 29 MSPs - while this is an increase of seven on its current number, it would not be enough to overtake the SNP.

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said: “Today’s poll now reveals that voters’ disillusion with the new Prime Minister and UK Government has taken a significant toll on the party’s prospects north of the border.”

However the poll also suggests the SNP has failed to capitalise on Labour’s dwindling popularity in the wake of the party’s gifts and donations scandal and unhappiness with the 2025/26 UK budget.

The poll puts the SNP unchanged on 33 per cent in the constituency votes and increasing by one point to 29 per cent in the regional list.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and First Minister John Swinney | Andy Buchanan/Getty Images

Should this play out in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, the SNP would lose 13 seats.

This would see the SNP winning 51 MSPs which would still be enough to see John Swinney remaining as First Minister.

Support for the Scottish Conservatives under new leader Russell Findlay increased by three points to 15 per cent in the constituency vote and remains unchanged on 14 per cent in the regional list.

The Steamie newsletter brings you unrivalled political analysis - sign up here

However the poll suggests Reform UK would win 11 per cent in both the constituency and regional votes, outperforming the Scottish Greens (six per cent and nine per cent) and the Lib Dems (10 per cent and nine per cent).

Prof Curtice says this could mean Nigel Farage’s party becomes a “key player” in Holyrood by becoming the fourth largest party in the Scottish Parliament behind the SNP, Labour and the Conservatives.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Should this poll play out at the 2026 Holyrood election, the Conservatives would return 16 MSPs (almost half the party’s current number), with Reform UK on 12, the Lib Dems on 11 and the Greens on 10.

Elsewhere the poll found Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s popularity has collapsed to minus 28 in Scotland compared to just minus five back in August.

Mr Sarwar’s rating also dropped nine points to minus 17.

First Minister John Swinney’s popularity is at minus 11.

The poll also found 17 per cent of respondents felt the chancellor’s budget statement last week will have a positive impact on their household, compared to 29 per cent who said it would have a negative impact.

A total of 1,013 people were surveyed by Norstat between the budget statement finishing on Wednesday 30 October and Friday 1 November.