Shocking poll result for Scottish Tories as SNP and Labour neck and neck in general election race

The Tories are set to be wiped out in Scotland, a new poll has suggested.

The Conservatives are on course for a complete wipe-out in Scotland as the party reels from Douglas Ross’s decision to quit as leader, a new poll has found.

Mr Ross announced he would quit as leader of the Scottish Conservatives after the July 4 election after the party controversially de-selected David Duguid for a key Westminster seat. Despite vowing not to return to Westminster, Mr Ross changed his mind and has put himself forward.

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The poll was conducted between June 3-9 – when Mr Ross confirmed his Westminster bid, but before he announced his decision to stand down as leader next month.

Ipsos’ Scottish Political Monitor, run in partnership with STV News, surveyed 1,150 people aged 16 and above and found both the SNP and Labour are neck and neck on 36 per cent.

The Scottish Tories remain in third place, but with just 13 per cent of the vote share. Meanwhile 5 per cent said they would vote for the Scottish Liberal Democrats, 4 per cent for Reform UK and 3 per cent for the Scottish Greens.

Seat projections for the poll show the SNP is set to lose its majority of seats in Scotland, with the party projected to take 27, Labour 27 and the Liberal Democrats would win three. The study found the Conservatives would return no Scottish MPs to Westminster.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “This election campaign in Scotland is about the persuadable, with 42 per cent of likely voters saying they may change their mind by polling day. Although it currently looks a very close race between the SNP and Labour, there are signs that Labour may be in a stronger position than the SNP to win further voters over during the campaign.

“Of those who may change their minds, Labour is likely to be the main beneficiary, with 24 per cent of this group saying they may switch to Labour, compared with 12 per cent for the SNP.

“The Conservative vote looks soft, with 55 per cent of those intending to vote Conservative saying they may change their mind – and those voters would be most likely to switch to Labour.

“Given the profile of marginal seats in Scotland, even small changes in vote share – and remember that polls have a margin of error too – can make a big difference to the final result, which means the parties still have a huge amount to play for in the remaining weeks of the campaign.”

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Scottish Conservative chairman Craig Hoy said: “Voters know that in key seats across Scotland it’s a straight fight between the Scottish Conservatives and the SNP – and these battles will be extremely close.

“Stephen Flynn has said that every SNP MP elected will double down on their independence obsession, instead of focusing on the people’s priorities – fixing Scotland’s ailing public services and creating good jobs.

“The only way to stop this, is to defeat the SNP – and that means voting Scottish Conservative in the seats where only we are capable of beating them.”

Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie said the poll showed “more and more Scots” were turning to her party.

But she said: “There are only three weeks until the poll that really matters – polling day. On that day, Scots have a choice – risk letting the Tories back in or delivering a Labour government with Scotland at its heart. All the Tories have to offer is more chaos and all the SNP have to offer is more division, incompetence and decline.”

Elsewhere, support for independence among the respondents sat at 51 per cent among decided voters, compared with 49 per cent of those opposed. The poll also suggested a soft vote that could lean heavily to Labour.

Some 55 per cent of respondents said they had definitely decided where their vote will go, but of those who said they had not (24 per cent) said they could move to Labour.

Of those who said they would vote SNP, 64 per cent said they would definitely do so, compared with 55 per cent for Labour and 43 per cent for the Conservatives.

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Rishi Sunak has meanwhile insisted he had “absolutely not” lost hope of winning the general election as Tory allies warned about the risk of Labour winning a “super-majority”.

The Prime Minister warned against giving Sir Keir Starmer a “blank cheque” if he won power, but stressed that he was still hopeful of victory. His comments came after defence secretary Grant Shapps suggested the Tories were now fighting to prevent a 1997-style Labour landslide.

Mr Shapps said it would be “very bad news” for the country if Sir Keir was able to enter No 10 with his power “unchecked” by Parliament. The Tory strategy, backed by a social media advertising campaign, is aimed at persuading would-be Reform UK voters not to risk handing Labour a majority which could eclipse even Tony Blair’s victory.

The online advert highlights a scenario suggesting the Tories could be reduced to just 57 seats in Parliament on a 19 per cent vote share, even if Reform picked up no MPs.

Mr Shapps told Times Radio that to ensure proper accountability “you don’t want to have somebody receive a super-majority”. But Mr Sunak insisted he was still fighting to win.

Asked by journalists if the change in tone showed the Tories had conceded defeat, the Prime Minister said: “No absolutely not. What you saw yesterday is we’ve put a manifesto forward which has got a very clear set of tax cuts for the country, tax cuts at every stage of your life.

“Whether you’re working or setting up a small business, tax cuts when you’re trying to buy your first home, tax cut for pensioners, and tax cuts for families. And I’m really energised to now have a chance to put a very clear plan to the country and talk about all the things I want to do.”He added that the manifesto showed a “clear direction of travel” that the Tories would take if they win the election.

Mr Shapps, sent out on the airwaves by the Conservatives, suggested his party’s goal now was to provide the strongest-possible opposition in Parliament rather then allow Labour the kind of majority that would allow Sir Keir to operate without resistance.



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