Scotland could take until 2080 to reach net zero, Conservatives claim

Scotland will not reach net zero until 2080, 35 years after its target date, based on current projections, the Tories have said.

Conservatives claimed that the “snail’s pace progress” Scotland has made in reducing emissions in recent years meant the legally binding goal of reaching net zero by 2045 “is now little more than a pipe dream”.

The party also raised fears there could be “eye-watering” costs involved if the Scottish Government is to meet the target, with “drastic” lifestyle changes also necessary.

Tories raised the issue in the wake of a report by independent experts at the Climate Change Committee (CCC), who warned earlier this week that hitting the 2045 target could cost “around £750 million per year”.

Workers at the former refinery are being trained so they can move into new roles (Picture: Michael Gillen, National World)

Saying that “getting to net zero by 2045 will require immediate action, at pace and scale”, the CCC said Scotland needs to see a “rapid increase” in the number of electric vehicles (EVs) on the roads, and the installation of heat pumps must also “accelerate rapidly”.

The pathway it proposed for reaching the 2045 net zero target indicated that the number of fully electric vehicles on the roads should increase from about 2.2 per cent of cars and 0.8 per cent of vans in 2023 to “around three-fifths of cars and vans” by 2035, rising again to 94 per cent over the next 10 years.

The advisory body added that two-fifths of homes should be heated by low-carbon electric systems by 2035, with the “majority” of these to be heat pumps, this then rising to 92 per cent of properties by 2045.

Heat pump installation ‘will need to accelerate rapidly’

To achieve this, the CCC said that “annual heat pump installations in existing homes will need to accelerate rapidly, reaching nearly 35,000 by 2030”.

It went on to say it would be “important” for people to “to eat less meat and dairy” and to keep plane trips “close to today’s levels” until greener aviation technology develops.

Scottish Government ministers have stressed their commitment to meeting the 2045 target.

But last year they scrapped the interim target of cutting emissions by 75 per cent by 2030, saying this was “out of reach”.

With Scotland’s emissions for 2024 projected to be 42.1 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), and annual reductions over the last five years standing at roughly 0.75 MtCO2e, the Tories calculated it would take 56 years, until 2080, for Scotland to reach net zero.

Conservative net zero and energy spokesman Douglas Lumsden said this “must act as a wake-up call to SNP ministers who are still hellbent on reaching net zero by 2045”.

He added: “The nationalists were already humiliated into dropping previous climate change targets.

“Their snail’s pace progress in reducing emissions in recent years suggests meeting their 2045 goal is now little more than a pipe dream.”

Mr Lumsden said: “If the SNP remain wedded to hitting 2045, then this report makes it clear hard-pressed households will suffer eye-watering costs being imposed on them, or there will have to be drastic changes in people’s lifestyles.

“Those costs are simply not affordable, and ministers must realise lifestyle changes won’t happen overnight.”

‘They need to wake up and accept reality’

He continued: “The cosy left-wing consensus at Holyrood is happy to see Scotland continue to try and hurtle towards hitting net zero by 2045, no matter the costs on families and businesses.

“They need to wake up and accept reality. The recommendations in the report will alarm households across Scotland, especially if there is any sign of the SNP supporting them.”

Mr Lumsden added his party wanted to see an “affordable transition to net zero which prioritises keeping bills low over only focusing on meeting arbitrary deadlines”.

Acting Net Zero Secretary Gillian Martin said the Scottish Government was “carefully considering the Climate Change Committee’s advice before bringing forward regulations to set carbon budget levels for Scotland”.

Ms Martin said these carbon budgets “must provide an achievable pathway to net zero in 2045” which also “delivers better health outcomes, puts more money in people’s pockets, and leaves no workers behind”.

She said: “That is the approach the Scottish Government has always taken, and measures announced in our Programme for Government like abolishing peak rail fares for good and delivering 24,000 additional public electric vehicle charge points by 2030, will contribute to that.

“That will be followed by a new climate change plan, outlining our policies and proposals for reducing emissions between 2026 and 2040. This will be brought forward shortly after the carbon budget secondary legislation has been approved.”