Poll: Blow for Labour as new YouGov survey puts the SNP back on top

The YouGov poll gives the SNP an 11 point advantage over Labour

A new poll predicts the SNP would remain the top party in Scotland at a general election – but is not enough to win the coming by-election.

The YouGov poll for The Times put the SNP at an 11-point advantage over Labour, on 38 per cent. This is up two points since last month.

At the same time Labour fell five points to 27 per cent.

First Minister Humza Yousaf. Image: Andrew Milligan/Press Association.

If this was a real general election, this would give the SNP 39 seats at the House of Commons and Labour only 11.

This is still a major shift from the existing Scottish contingent of MPs, as right now the SNP has 44 MPs and Labour only has one, Edinburgh South MP Ian Murray.

It also gives the Conservatives four MPs – down from six – and the Lib Dems five (+1). Twelve per cent of voters backed other parties in this poll.

This will no doubt be a blow to Sir Keir Starmer – one of the ways he is going to be able to win a majority government at the next general election is by taking seats off of the SNP here in Scotland.

This poll casts that into doubt, but is a boost for First Minister Humza Yousaf, as a number of recent polls have predicted the SNP and Labour would be neck-and-neck.

However, polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said this shift was not enough for the SNP to win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election on October 5.

Despite a slight rise in support for the SNP in this poll, it predicts a fall in support for independence.

The poll puts support for independence on 39 per cent and support for the union on 44 per cent, with 16 per cent undecided or not revealing their preference.

This come as the SNP puts forward a motion to its party conference next month suggesting winning a majority of Scottish seats at the next general election is enough to begin negotiations with the UK Government for Scottish independence.

These plans were first laid out by Mr Yousaf at the SNP independence convention in Dundee back in June, but members will be asked to consider the detail at the October conference in Aberdeen.