Scottish independence: SNP support slumps to lowest level since indyref, YouGov poll shows, as less than 20% think Humza Yousaf doing well

The data from YouGov, which polled 1,032 Scottish adults on their voting intention at the next Holyrood election between April 17-20, found the SNP’s constituency vote share had dropped five points since March to 38 per cent – the joint-lowest since the independence referendum in 2014.

As recently as December, the SNP was on 50 per cent in constituency voting intention.

The poll shows that Labour’s constituency vote share of 30 per cent is the highest it has achieved since the 2014 vote.

Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf answers questions during First Minister's Questions at Scottish Parliament on April 20, 2023 in Edinburgh, Scotland. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

The Conservative Party takes 16 per cent of the vote and the Liberal Democrats 10 per cent.

The regional list vote was similar, with the SNP’s five-point dip to 30 per cent putting the party on the lowest share of the vote it has held since just before the referendum, and representing a 10-point drop since late 2022.

Labour’s 26 per cent is similar to other polls from this year, although still represents a significant turnaround for the party from its low point of 11 per cent in mid-2019.

Westminster voting intention has seen less of an impact, with results for all parties in the margin of error to the previous poll in March. The SNP takes 37 per cent of the vote (from 39 per cent before), while Labour is on 28 per cent (-1) and the Tories 17 per cent (+1).

Following the resignation of Ms Sturgeon in February, and the election of Humza Yousaf as the new First Minister, half of Scots (53 per cent) see the SNP as a divided party, compared with 29 per cent who see it as a united one.

The poll also found only 19 per cent of Scots believe Mr Yousaf is doing well, with 44 per cent who believe he is doing badly. One in three Scots are currently unsure how he is doing as First Minister.

The poll also found that four in ten people believe Mr Yousaf will do a worse job than his predecessor Ms Sturgeon, with only 9 per cent thinking he will be better. Among 2019 SNP voters, only 32 per cent think that he is doing well.

One in three believe he is doing a good job, but 28 per cent say he is doing a bad one. Four in ten (40 per cent) answered “don’t know”. Support for Scottish independence remains the same as it was in last month’s YouGov poll, with 46 per cent saying they would vote Yes and 54 per cent No.