John Curtice gives verdict on likelihood of Anas Sarwar becoming next first minister
The prospect of Anas Sarwar becoming the next first minister of Scotland has “diminished markedly”, according to Sir John Curtice, as a new poll showed the SNP on course to remain the largest party in Holyrood.
The Survation poll for the Holyrood Sources podcast and True North Advisers puts the SNP on 53 seats, ahead of second-placed Labour on 24.
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Hide AdMeanwhile, the Conservatives and Reform are in joint third place on 15 seats each, the Liberal Democrats on 12, and the Scottish Greens on 10.


The 2021 election saw the SNP win 64 seats, Conservatives 31, Labour 22, Scottish Greens eight and the Liberal Democrats four.
Sir John, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said Mr Sarwar’s limited popularity as Scottish Labour leader “is proving insufficient to counteract the adverse impact on his party's standing of voters' disappointment with the performance of the UK Labour government at Westminster”.
He added: “As a result, his once seemingly bright prospects of becoming Scotland's next first minister have diminished markedly since [the general election in] July. Nevertheless, the SNP are currently still heading for significant losses in next year's Holyrood election, and could well find it difficult to form a stable administration.
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Hide Ad“While voters, including many of those who voted SNP in 2021, have their doubts about the SNP's record in office, and especially so in the case of the health service, they are even more doubtful about Labour's record at Westminster. Even many of those who voted Labour last year are critical of the UK government's economic record.


“Meanwhile, nearly one in three of those who voted for the party in July disapprove of Sir Keir Starmer's record in office, making him less popular with his own party's supporters than Kemi Badenoch, Sir Ed Davey or Nigel Farage are with theirs.”
Sir John said the SNP is “still well short of the level of popularity that the party enjoyed at the last Holyrood election in 2021.”
On the Holyrood constituency vote, with undecided voters and people who refused to say removed, the poll put the SNP on 35 per cent and Labour on 22 per cent. The Tories were on 14 per cent, Reform UK 13 per cent, the Lib Dems 8 per cent, the Greens 6 per cent and Alba 1 per cent.
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Hide AdOn the more proportional regional list vote, the SNP were on 31 per cent, Labour 21 per cent, the Tories 14 per cent and Reform 13 per cent. The Lib Dems were on 10 per cent and the Greens 9 per cent.
The poll showed John Swinney is the most popular choice to be the next first minister, with 25 per cent of respondents saying they thought the SNP leader would be the best in the role, ahead of Anas Sarwar on 16 per cent. A further 38 per cent of people did not know.
Fieldwork for the Survation poll was carried out via online interviews between January 7 and 13, using a sample of 1,024 Scottish residents aged 16 and above.
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