Exclusive:New poll shows John Swinney has ‘managed to stem SNP’s bleeding’, but Labour on course for victory

A new poll has handed fresh hope to the SNP to claw back ground on Labour in the general election, suggesting John Swinney’s leadership has “helped to steady the nationalist ship”.

But the poll by Savanta for The Scotsman found Labour was still on course for a thumping victory in Scotland, although Sir Keir Starmer’s party has failed to increase its lead over the SNP at Westminster despite Mr Swinney’s party facing severe criticism over the Michael Matheson saga.

Polling experts suggested Mr Swinney’s leadership had “managed to stem the SNP’s bleeding” by holding support steady against a resurgent Labour. But a Scottish Labour source said: “The only people in the SNP this poll is good news for is the Kate Forbes shadow leadership campaign.”

SNP leader John Swinney speaks next to some bagpipe players as he attends the official opening of the Levenmouth Rail Link. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Labour has thrown a lot of energy into Scotland in the first week of campaigning, with Sir Keir making a pitch to independence supporters in Glasgow and the leader of the opposition returning to Scotland today – but the poll suggests the party has not managed to pull further ahead of the SNP.

The survey has revealed the SNP had leapfrogged back ahead of Labour as the biggest party in a Holyrood election since the previous Savanta study earlier this month, raising prospects it could close the gap with Labour ahead of polling day on July 4.

Savanta interviewed 1,067 Scottish adults aged 16 and over online between May 24-28.

SNP First Minister John Swinney (Photo by Jane Barlow/PA Wire)

Sir Keir will return to Scotland this morning where he will set out Labour’s six steps for change in Scotland, focusing on economic stability, cutting NHS waiting times. creating jobs and maximising Scotland’s influence.

The poll remains difficult reading for the SNP, showing no change to the party’s position in a Westminster election from the previous Savanta survery. Projections from polling expert Sir John Curtice show Labour is expected to secure 28 seats, up from the two it currently holds, while the SNP is set to lose 25 of its MPs and be left with 18 members in the Commons. The Conservatives would hold their six seats and the Lib Dems would have five MPs, according to the study.

According to the poll, Labour would attract 37 per cent of the vote if a general election was held tomorrow – the same level as the previous Savanta survey in Scotland earlier this month. The SNP, meanwhile, remained on 33 per cent, with the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats also holding their ground at 17 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, with ‘other’ on 6 per cent.

At Holyrood, the SNP would retake Labour as the biggest party. On the more proportional regional list vote, the SNP would climb to 30 per cent (+4), with Labour slipping to 29 per cent (-3). The Conservatives would remain at 18 per cent (the same as the previous poll), the Greens would drop to 10 per cent (-1), the Liberal Democrats would remain on 10 per cent and ‘other’ is on 4 per cent.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer (Photo by Andrew Milligan/PA Wire)

Under analysis by Prof Curtice, the SNP would have 43 MSPs and Labour 41 MSPs if a Scottish Parliament election was held tomorrow. That signals a shift in support from Labour to the SNP, with the previous Savanta poll putting the SNP on just 35 Holyrood seats and Labour on 47.

The poll separately showed no change to the level of support for independence if a referendum was held tomorrow from the previous Savanta survey. Support for independence remained split, with 52 per cent in favour of remaining in the UK and 48 per cent backing separation, excluding don't knows.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “Our first poll since John Swinney was confirmed as Scotland’s First Minister suggests that he has managed to stem the SNP’s bleeding. In a sense this is positive news for the SNP, but is also a likely consequence of him simply not being Humza Yousaf.

“There’s plenty of campaign yet to go, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the bigger picture – Labour held one Scottish MP after the last general election and our poll suggests they could be within touching distance of 30. Starmer’s focus on Scotland looks like it may well be paying off, even if this stalemate holds until election day."

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (Photo by Andrew Milligan/PA)

Sir Keir remains Scotland’s most popular leader with a net favourability rating of +1, but that figure has dropped from +2 in the previous Savanta poll. Mr Swinney has meanwhile seen his net favourability improve from -8 to -4 since becoming SNP leader, while Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s net favourability has worsened slightly from -7 to -8.

Sir John, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said Mr Swinney replacing Mr Yousaf as SNP leader had “helped to steady the nationalist ship”, but warned the party “still faces significant headwinds”.

He said: “Not only has SNP support held steady on that at the beginning of May when the party was reeling from the fallout from the ending of the Bute House Agreement, but both John Swinney's personal rating and the image of his party have improved somewhat.

“Among those who voted SNP in 2019, Mr Swinney's net favourability rating has edged up from +31 to +37. His party is now somewhat more likely to be thought to have strong leadership and to keep its promises, and its perceived ability to understand the issues facing ordinary people and Scotland as a whole have improved somewhat.”

But with the party still four points behind Labour, Sir John warned the SNP remained “at risk of losing up to two-thirds of the Westminster seats it won in 2019”.

“The question now is whether Mr Swinney can use the five short weeks of the election campaign to repair some of the damage that has been done his party's image in the eyes of voters and thereby perhaps persuade some of them back into the nationalist fold,” he said.

Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “We know from our conversations on the doors that voters are fed up with the broken status quo after 17 years of the SNP and 14 years of the Tories.

“Scottish Labour is gaining support, but we are taking nothing for granted and will continue to work hard to gain the trust and support of Scots. This general election is an opportunity for change that we cannot afford to miss. By voting Labour, Scots can make sure to boot out this rotten Tory government and put Scottish MPs at the heart of Westminster.”

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: "We need to get rid of the Tory government. The way to do that in Scotland is to vote SNP because we are the main challengers in every Tory held seat. Scottish voters can also see that the closer Sir Keir Starmer gets to Downing Street, the further away he moves from Scotland's values.

"Austerity, Brexit and the cost of living crisis – all imposed on Scotland by Westminster – have pushed up household costs, hit the economy hard and cut the money available to spend on the NHS. At this election, vote SNP to put the interests of Scotland first."

Analysis – Sir John Curtice

The installation of John Swinney helped to steady the nationalist ship, but it still faces significant headwinds.

Not only has SNP support held steady on that at the beginning of May when the party was reeling from the fallout from the ending of the Bute House Agreement, but both John Swinney's personal rating and the image of his party have improved somewhat.

Among those who voted SNP in 2019, Mr Swinney's net favourability rating has edged up from +31 to +37.

His party is now somewhat more likely to be thought to have strong leadership and to keep its promises, and its perceived ability to understand the issues facing ordinary people and Scotland as a whole have improved somewhat.

However, the party is still four points behind Labour and is at risk of losing up to two-thirds of the Westminster seats it won in 2019.

Only just over a half of current Yes supporters say they will vote SNP while more than a quarter are backing Labour.

The party is still widely seen as divided, including not least among those who voted SNP in 2019. Meanwhile, although somewhat improved, the party's reputation for strong leadership and understanding Scotland's issue is nothing like as good as it was under Nicola Sturgeon's leadership.

The question now is whether Mr Swinney can use the five short weeks of the election campaign to repair some of the damage that has been done his party's image in the eyes of voters and thereby perhaps persuade some of them back into the nationalist fold.