John Swinney's hopes of SNP majority fade as Scots head to the polls
Turnout is expected to be substantially down on 2021, with one in four voters still open to changing their mind
John Swinney’s hopes of winning a majority at the Holyrood election are fading as Scots cast their votes today, with a series of polls suggesting the SNP’s lead is tightening.
It comes as Scotland’s political parties launch a last-ditch scramble for votes, with turnout expected to be substantially down on 2021 and around one in four voters still open to changing their mind.
A final multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll by Survation projected the SNP would win 59 seats, making it by far the largest party but still falling six short of an overall majority.
Mr Swinney, the First Minister and SNP leader, has repeatedly emphasised the need for a majority to “break the logjam” over the constitution and force Westminster to agree to a second independence referendum.
Reform UK would emerge as the second-largest party in Holyrood, according to the Survation poll of 5,025 Scots, marking an extraordinary electoral breakthrough for Nigel Farage’s party.
It would win 18 seats, narrowly ahead of Labour on 17 and the Greens on 16.
Survation’s model projects Reform winning list seats in each of Scotland’s eight regions, as well as having a chance of winning two constituency seats, Cunninghame North and Airdrie. Its research was carried out between April 20 and May 4.
“In constituency contests alone, the SNP is projected to win around 51 seats outright,” Survation said. “A further 14 constituencies are too close to call, with no party holding a clear majority of our model’s simulation outcomes.”
Pollster Mark Diffley said: “The SNP will be delighted that, after nearly 20 years in power, they look set to be returned to government, but disappointed that, in line with other polls, they are likely to miss out on an overall majority, gaining 59 seats, six short of that target.
“There is, however, likely to be a comfortable majority for pro-independence parties of the SNP and Scottish Greens combined, on the back of a strong Green performance of 16 seats. Both of those parties hope that such a result will put the constitutional question back on the table.
“Throughout the campaign, Scottish Labour and Reform UK have closely fought out the battle for second place and the final poll suggests that it is too close to call with Reform collecting 18 seats and Labour 17.
“If this result is replicated then John Swinney will certainly be re-elected as Scotland’s First Minister, facing Malcolm Offord across the chamber in FMQs each week as leader of a substantial group of Reform MSPs which will represent the biggest shake up at Holyrood of the devolution era.”
A final Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse survey of 1,255 adults, conducted between May 1 and May 4, put the SNP on 57 seats, Reform 20, the Greens 18, Labour 15, the Lib Dems 11 and the Conservatives eight.
Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said its research “may dent the SNP’s confidence in achieving its hoped-for majority, since it shows the party’s share of the vote falling back slightly on both constituency and regional votes”.
On both constituency and regional list votes, a quarter of voters (25 per cent on the constituency vote and 26 per cent on the list) said they may still change their mind before they vote.
Elsewhere, research by More in Common suggested support for Labour may be rising. Support for the SNP on both the constituency and regional ballots was down by three points from the end of April to stand at 32 per cent and 23 per cent respectively.
But the pollsters said the “most notable movement” in their final poll of the campaign was from Labour, whose constituency vote share was up three points to 20 per cent, with support on the regional ballot rising by four points to 19 per cent.
Meanwhile, an MRP poll by YouGov suggested the SNP will win 62 seats, three short of the 65 needed for an overall majority. YouGov also predicted Reform UK would emerge as the second largest party on 19 seats, two more than Labour on 17.
It put the Scottish Greens on 16 seats – which would be the party’s best-ever result – including taking the Edinburgh Central constituency being contested by senior SNP minister Angus Robertson.
MRPs use voter intentions, demographics, previous voting behaviour and constituency information to project the number of seats parties could win.
In April, YouGov said such a poll had suggested 89 per cent of simulations it ran resulted in the SNP winning an outright majority – however this was now said to have fallen to 11 per cent.
Ailsa Henderson, professor of political science at the University of Edinburgh, said the data suggests the percentage of people turning out to vote could be in the low 50s, which could “have a role in terms of eventual vote share”.
Parties generally backed by older voters, such as Reform UK and the Conservatives, would stand to benefit, she said. Those backed by younger voters like the Greens could lose out.
A low turnout election could also throw up other potential stumbling blocks, particularly given Mr Swinney's drive for a second referendum.
"I think it's also a concern in terms of mandate for a referendum," Prof Henderson said. "It starts to raise questions about what the government can do on the back of that - what legitimacy it can claim it has if engagement is low."
Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, said key battles in a “handful of seats” could deny the SNP an overall majority.
He told BBC Radio Scotland: “The truth is trying to forecast exactly what is going to happen in individual seats is very, very difficult.
“If the cookie were to crumble just slightly in the SNP’s favour, the Greens just miss out on some of their hopes, then maybe the SNP might still make it. But if the polls are right, the odds are against it and the SNP will need a lot of luck.”
He said support for the SNP is “well down” from the last Holyrood election in 2021 – when the party, then under Nicola Sturgeon, polled almost 48 per cent of the constituency vote.
In Glasgow on Wednesday, Jackie Baillie, the deputy leader of Scottish Labour, held back tears as she urged voters to back the party at its eve of poll rally.
She became emotional as she told party candidates and activists that “every seat matters and every vote matters”.
Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander said: “Jackie speaks for all of us. Because it’s that big and for us it’s that deep.”
The pair had been introducing Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, who received a standing ovation from the crowd.
He repeated nine times his appeal for the public to “reject Reform, beat the SNP, change Scotland and vote Scottish Labour”. He also repeated eight times that “you have given John Swinney and the SNP 20 years, give me five”.
His pitch focused on fixing education, the NHS, policing, building more houses, abolishing business rates, mending potholes and the ferry fiasco.
When asked by The Scotsman how many seats Labour would need to win to keep him in a job, Mr Sarwar said: “We are competitive in 38 constituencies.
“Of course, the more seats we win, the more chance we have of forming the government and changing this country.
“So with those 38 constituencies in particular, you have to vote Scottish Labour, and that’s the argument we’ll continue to make over the next 24 hours.”
In Hamilton, Mr Swinney refused to say whether the SNP falling short of a majority would be a failure. “I’m just going to concentrate on winning the election,” the First Minister said.
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