John Swinney has left Scottish independence alone for 12 months - here's why he is talking about indyref again

John Swinney has signalled the return of the independence campaign after the SNP “lost the right to be heard by the people of Scotland” - in a move he claimed would “shift the tectonic plates of Scottish politics”.

The SNP leader warned Nigel Farage “may not be in office, but he is very much in power” at Westminster as he suggested the surge in support for Reform UK should act as a “wake-up call for people across Scotland” to back independence.

The First Minister has insisted voters “have learnt the very, very, very hard way” that a Labour government at Westminster has been no antidote to breaking up the UK and will seek a pro-independence majority at next year’s election to claim a mandate for a referendum.

But the First Minister suggested the route to independence would remain a well-trodden path for the SNP - simply use a “democratic majority” of pro-independence MSPs at next year’s election to plead with the Prime Minister for permission to hold a re-run of the 2014 referendum.

John Swinney has put independence back at the top of the agenda of Scottish politics | Jane Barlow/PA Wire

Speaking in Edinburgh on Wednesday - exactly one year before voters head to the polls and surrounded by the SNP’s candidates - Mr Swinney delivered a confident speech that set out his strategy of keeping the spotlight on the record of the UK government. He impressed on the perception the threat posed by Mr Farage accelerated the need for independence.

The SNP leader was speaking after delivering his Programme for Government in Holyrood on Tuesday. Alongside key pre-election pledges, Mr Swinney also included plans to “publish a further paper setting out the economic benefits that independence can bring for Scotland” in the next 12 months.

READ MORE: Programme for Government: John Swinney ramps up pressure on Labour with pre-election manifesto

Since last July’s general election in which the SNP suffered a humbling defeat at the hands of Labour, independence has taken a back seat in Scottish politics for the first time since the 2014 referendum.

But Mr Swinney has now insisted that “the public are listening to us again” after the SNP regained first place in the polls - and believes now is the time to put the constitutional debate back to the public.

In his speech to activists and candidates, Mr Swinney said the SNP was “back on the front foot” after last year’s miserable defeat to Labour.

READ MORE: Why John Swinney's big gamble on NHS record could define whether SNP keep hold of power

Mr Swinney said “people in Scotland put their trust in Labour last year”, but stressed “time and time again, Labour has let them down”.

He said: “And in the election next year, be in no doubt - Labour will have to answer for their broken promises.”

He warned the surge in support for Reform “should be a wake-up call for people across Scotland", accusing Prime Minister Keir Starmer of having "opened the door” to Mr Farage. Ironically, the surge in support for Reform is poised to benefit the SNP at next year’s election by splitting support for both the Conservatives and Labour.

Mr Swinney accused Sir Keir of having “failed to stand up” to the Reform leader, saying Labour was “dancing to Farage’s tune on immigration” and being “too scared to admit Brexit has been a disaster”.

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is opposed to net zero and won the highest vote share in last week's English local elections | PA

“At Westminster, Nigel Farage may not be in office - but he is very much in power,” Mr Swinney said.

Turning to independence, the SNP leader said “for years, Labour told people in Scotland that they didn’t need independence” and that “we just need to get rid of the Tories and everything will change”.

He added: “The choice is to accept things as they are, or to act differently. We can build a winning coalition for independence by showing people what that empowerment can lead to.

“Even in these uncertain times, we know – beyond any doubt – that Scotland has what it takes to be a thriving successful independent nation.”

Scottish independence supporters march through Glasgow in 2019 | PA

Mr Swinney stressed that from now until voters go to the polls in one year, “our ambition must be to unite as many people as possible behind our vision”. 

He said: “We must reach people from all walks of life, in every corner of Scotland. We must build a winning coalition that is as broad as it is high.

“A year today, I don’t just want to win - I want us to shift the tectonic plates of Scottish politics and create a wave of hope that will overcome Westminster’s wall of despair.”

Mr Swinney was pressed by journalists over why now was the time to revive the independence campaign when he insisted he wanted to unite Scotland.

He candidly admitted his party had “lost the right to be heard by the people of Scotland” last year.

Past plans by former first minister Nicola Sturgeon to turn last year’s general election into a "de-facto" referendum on independence were heavily criticised at the time, with Sir Keir Starmer saying the approach defied common sense.

Mr Swinney said: “People in Scotland are now able to see the way in which the Westminster system operates - not only under the stewardship of the Conservatives, but under the stewardship of the Labour party.

“I think people have learnt the very, very, very hard way that you can change the government at Westminster, but it doesn’t change the outcomes for your lives.”

READ MORE: John Swinney says there is a ‘very real possibility’ Nigel Farage could be UK’s next PM

Speaking to The Scotsman, the SNP leader said that after last year’s crushing election defeat, his party “had to work really hard to re-earn the right to be heard by the public and to take time over that”.

He said: “I now think that we find ourselves in a better position. We’re leading the opinion polls again, we’ve started winning local government by-elections again, we’re making headway on the public’s priorities. All of which makes me feel as if the public are listening to us again, which allows me to engage the public again in a conversation about what the future of Scotland looks like.

“If we resign ourselves to what is the prevailing drift of politics from south of the Border, I don’t think its in any way fanciful to say that Nigel Farage will be the next prime ninister. I think that’s deeply, deeply unattractive as a prospect.”