John Curtice: Calling a general election after Rwanda bill would be a 'suicide mission'

Rishi Sunak saw off a rebellion over his Rwanda bill – but he is not out of the woods yet

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has claimed holding a general election sooner rather than later would be a “suicide mission” for the Conservatives.

The warning comes after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak saw off a rebellion on Tuesday night in the House of Commons over his controversial Rwanda Bill.

The vote, part of his emergency “stop the boats” legislation, passed by 313 votes to 269, but Mr Sunak is braced for a fresh battle with his MPs in the new year after scrambling to get enough support.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has seen off a rebellion over his Rwanda bill. Image: James Manning/Press Association.

But Sir John said it was not necessarily the MPs who abstained from the vote and want the Rwanda Bill to go further that Mr Sunak needs to worry about – it is those who want to water the bill down.

“This was a safer win for the Government than speculation anticipated, but this is often what happens with these dramas,” he told the BBC. “In the end many Conservatives felt it was not tough enough, but they still voted for it.

“Those who abstained from the vote means there is a problem coming from the right of the party, and they will want to put forward something both they and opposition parties are willing to vote for.

“One suspects there won’t be one and they will be faced with a choice at the third reading to take half the loaf or throw the Bill out and be left with none.

Polling expert Sir John Curtice. Picture: John Devlin

“Where the Government needs to worry is if opposition parties or the House of Lords start to craft amendments to appeal to centrist Conservatives and signal they feel the Bill is going further than it should. So the Bill could be softened rather than hardened, and that’s where there’s likely to be a coalition of doubtful Tories and opposition parties.”

Sir John said there was still a chance the Bill could be challenged in court, but that would not become clear until after the legislation has been formally passed.

Thoughts now turn to how this Bill will affect the outcome of the next general election – and Sir John said it would have little to no impact at all, with issues such as the economy and the NHS being more important to voters.

He said it would be a “suicide mission” for the Government to call a general election right now.

Sir John said: “Five polling companies last week put the Conservatives at 25 per cent, and they still do. The Government needs to appreciate that with all the things that have happened in the last ten days, there are things more important than the Rwanda Bill.

“There is the junior doctors’ strike in England, and the news this morning that the economy is going to enter a mild recession. Voters with concerns about the economy are eating away at Conservative votes, which it doesn’t appear the Rwanda vote is.

“The honest truth is given the Government is 20 per cent behind in the opinion polls, even if this Bill is defeated or significantly amended, they are not in a position to deploy this threat by going to the country. Going to the country would look like a suicide mission.”