General election 2024: Why the SNP needs to watch its back in the Central Belt, in wake of YouGov poll

A bleak outlook for the SNP has been forecast in the latest YouGov poll

It’s not a great start to 2024 for the SNP’s election prospects.

The first major poll of the year has predicted a Conservative wipe-out, with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer projected to secure a 120-seat majority.

This would be humiliating for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, with a loss comparable to that of Sir John Major in 1997.

SNP Leader Humza Yousaf alongside SNP Westminster Leader Stephen Flynn, SNP candidates and party activists in Glasgow. Picture: John Devlin

But what does this YouGov poll have to say about Scotland?

It predicts the SNP will still be the largest party in Scotland – but only by one seat.

It’s still a victory, but it would decimate their existing number of MPs, dropping from the 43 achieve at the 2019 general election to just 25.

It looks as if the SNP will continue to do well in the Highlands and the more rural seats, and will cling onto their strongholds in Dundee and Aberdeen.

This poll even has them being set to win a couple of seats off of the Conservatives.

But they are seriously losing ground in the Central Belt.

Up until a few months ago, shadow Scotland secretary Ian Murray was Labour’s sole MP from Scotland in the House of Commons – but there could be 24 of them come the next Parliament.

All six of the Glasgow seats are projected to go to Labour, along with a good chunk of Edinburgh seats and the majority of Fife seats – areas that were once considered the traditional Labour heartlands in Scotland prior to the 2014 independence referendum.

This is where the SNP will need to concentrate its resources in this year’s general election.

The SNP – and First Minister Humza Yousaf – officially launched its election campaign in Glasgow on Friday – a sensible location to try and persuade sceptical voters if this poll is anything to go by.

Prior to this launch, Mr Yousaf said he wanted to make Scotland “Tory-free” by targeting the six seats north of the border held by the Conservatives.

But given this poll predicts the Conservatives to fall to just four Scottish seats, and the sheer number of SNP seats projected to fall to Labour, this is where the real challenge will be.

The SNP can no longer rely on its core voter base of those supportive of independence. Instead they will have to persuade voters why they are a better shot than Labour, who right now are riding the crest of the election wave, and enjoying every second of it.