12 general election seats to watch as Scotland goes to the polls, from knife-edge battles to potential upsets
Polling day has finally arrived. After six long weeks, voters across Scotland will have their say.
It looks likely to be a tight battle between the SNP and Labour north of the border. But the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Conservatives also have their sights set on key seats.
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Hide AdHere’s my brief guide to 12 Scottish constituencies I’ll be keeping an eye on.


Rutherglen
This will probably be the first Scottish seat to declare around 1am, followed not long after by East Kilbride & Strathaven and Hamilton & Clyde Valley. All three will give an early indication of how the night is going for Labour in Scotland. Rutherglen is the surest bet, but the vote share will be important. Last year’s Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election saw a 20.4 per cent swing from the SNP to Labour, but the constituency has since been redrawn.
Dundee Central
Dundee was dubbed “Yes City” after it delivered the highest vote share for independence in the 2014 referendum, but the battle between the SNP and Labour may be tighter than expected here. A defeat for the former would be a heavy blow indeed. It still feels pretty unlikely, but we’ll find out around 2am.
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
Angus MacNeil had previously held this seat for the SNP since 2005. But he was expelled from the party last year and is now running as an independent. This could split the pro-independence vote and benefit Labour’s Torcuil Crichton, a former journalist with a strong local profile. His victory would be a big moment for Labour, which hasn’t won in the Western Isles since 2001. A result is expected at around 3am.
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Hide AdAlloa and Grangemouth
The SNP’s John Nicolson is the favourite here, but there are reports Labour increasingly fancies its chances. Kenny MacAskill, the former justice secretary, is standing for Alex Salmond’s Alba Party, which could again split the nationalist vote. The proposed closure of the Grangemouth oil refinery is understandably a major issue. Expect a result around 3am.
East Renfrewshire
This fascinating “bellwether” seat is due to declare around 3.15am. Labour won it in 2010, but the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald emerged victorious in 2015. It then went Tory in 2017, before switching back to the SNP two years later. Blair McDougall, the former campaign director for Better Together during the 2014 referendum, is now hoping to regain it for Labour. Expect tactical voting to play a big role.
The Glasgow constituencies
Okay, I know this is cheating, but I’m including all six Glasgow constituencies here. My article, my rules. Labour wants to paint Glasgow red. The city was once a Labour heartland, but the aftermath of the independence referendum saw it switch to the SNP. Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, previously told The Scotsman that Glasgow “is crucial in this election campaign”. Between around 3am and 4am, we’ll find out whether his party has been successful. It could be a huge moment.
Dumfries and Galloway
Around 3.30am, keep your eyes peeled for three southern constituencies the Scottish Tories are desperate to cling on to – Dumfries & Galloway, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Dumfries & Galloway was previously held by Alister Jack, the Scottish secretary, but he stepped down and the Tory candidate this time is John Cooper, a former journalist and special adviser. The Tories are very worried about Nigel Farage’s Reform UK eating into their vote.
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Hide AdMid Dunbartonshire
This is a key target for the Scottish Liberal Democrats. It mostly covers the old East Dunbartonshire constituency, although with boundary changes that could benefit the SNP. In 2019, Jo Swinson resigned as Liberal Democrat leader after losing to the SNP’s Amy Callaghan in East Dunbartonshire by just 149 votes. “It’ll be close, but we’ve got lots of volunteers and plenty of data so we’re feeling optimistic,” a Lib Dem source told me. Expect a result around 3.30am.
Lothian East
This is Labour’s top target in Scotland. Douglas Alexander, the New Labour grandee who served in the Cabinets of both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, will almost certainly win it. But given he is already being tipped for a key role in Keir Starmer’s government, it’s an interesting one to watch. It will declare around 4am, followed shortly afterwards by Edinburgh South, where Ian Murray – once Scotland’s sole Labour MP – is expected to win another thumping majority.
Edinburgh South West
The SNP’s Joanna Cherry is defending a majority of just under 12,000 votes in this constituency, which will declare around 4.30am. But Labour, which came third here in 2019 with just 7,478 votes, is confident of making an impact. "We're in it to win it,” Scott Arthur, the party’s candidate, told me last month. Unseating Ms Cherry would be “a bit of a Portillo moment”, he said. Ms Cherry enjoys a national profile and is thought to have a personal vote independent of her party, so it would be a real shock if she lost.
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
This could be one of the big stories of the night. Douglas Ross, the outgoing Scottish Tory leader, has gambled his political career on winning this seat. It’s on a knife-edge, and he previously told The Scotsman it could come down to a handful of votes. The SNP would take great pleasure in defeating Mr Ross, and the constituency is a top target for the party. Seamus Logan, its candidate, is optimistic. Expect a result around 4.45am.
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Hide AdCaithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Insiders say this seat, which is expected to declare around 5.30am, is on an absolute knife-edge. Jamie Stone won it for the Liberal Democrats with a majority of just 204 votes in 2019, and is hoping to keep hold of it. One party source estimated it would be “within a percentage point or two”. Inverness, Skye & West Ross-shire, which is due to declare around 5am, is thought to be similarly tight.
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