Trump looks increasingly desperate in the face of his worst nightmare, Kamala Harris

On the eve of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next week the fortunes of two great US political parties have collided in a spectacular and unexpected fashion resetting the political agenda and reshaping the campaign for the election of a new President, now only 82 days away, and which up until four weeks ago looked like a slam dunk victory for Trump, and the Republican party in elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Instead, a too close to call knife edged political drama is now in play. Chicago, a popular destination for party conventions, hosted in the summer of 1968 one of most memorable in American political history.

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President Lyndon Johnson, decided not to seek a second term amidst growing anger and demonstrations against the Vietnam War. Hubert Humphrey became the Democratic presidential nominee. Protests at the Convention in Chicago grew in intensity and violence and the now infamous Mayor Daley brought in riot police creating some of the ugliest scenes in US political history. The assassinations of Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy earlier in the year, had added to the political turmoil in America. The fortunes of the Democratic Party slumped. Richard Nixon became President.

Next week’s Convention will remind us of the volatility of US politics.

But a more positive story will unfold. After sustained political pressure, Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as the presumptive Presidential nominee This has unnerved Trump, andcompletely wrong footed the Republican Party now in a state of disarray and internally unravelling.

The Democratic Party, struggling in the polls in key swing states, has been transformed. The deep divisions in US politics provide no guarantee of the Democratic party winning the Presidency, but nevertheless this has now become a distinct possibility.

In recent weeks Trump has looks tired, more angry, revengeful and increasingly unstable, with a sharper public and media focus now on his mental acuity. He seems to be missing Joe Biden! His comments and rants about Kamala Harris are aggressive, demeaning and nearly unprintable in their manifestation of hatred, racism, misogyny, fear and lies.

Trump is experiencing his worst nightmare: a woman, younger, educated, black and a prosecutor when he is the prosecuted, a criminal facing the real possibility of prison time if he loses the forthcoming election. Despite advice he refuses to shift from personal abuse to policy.

But for Trump it could have been different. The attempted assassination at the Republican National Convention evoked an understandable sympathy and concern, but Trumps claim that divine intervention was helping him to save America, and his transitory embrace of national unity, exposed a political figure that can-not change, squandering in the process any semblance of a more inspired humanity.

The selection of JD Vance, as his Vice Presidential candidate, is proving to be a liability, now being openly questioned by leading Republicans. Further evidence about Trump’s sense of desperation and declining mental condition was revealed in two recent speeches.

At the Association of Black Journalists annual conference in Chicago Trump said, “I didn’t know Harris was Black” and implied she had recently changed her identity for political reasons! At a “Believers Summit” conference in West Palm Beach Florida, comprising a largely white Christian audience, Trump stated the next election would be the last time they would have to vote. Viewed now as his ”end of democracy,” speech, Trump has denied this interpretation of his remarks.

This raises serious doubts about his long term vision for America and his mental acuity. Incapable of original thought, he is believed to be the beneficiary of an extreme right wing manifesto for a Trump presidency. “Project 25”, written by extremists in the Heritage Foundation is designed to end US democracy in its present form, details of which are truly alarming.

Next week, the Democratic National Convention will confirm Harris and Tim Walz as the party’s nominees for the November election, reinforce the unity of the party and start to spell out the policy platform for the next four years. Never, since the first election of Barack Obama has the mood, morale and momentum of the Democratic party been as strong giving renewed hope to the ambition of regaining the House of Representatives, holding on to the Senate and securing the Presidency.

Harris is also building support among new young first time voters, six million of them, and regaining Asian, Hispanic and Black electors whose traditional support was weakening before Biden’s announcement to step down.

The focus on personal abuse may lessen and, as policy becomes more prominent, the Democratic party will have real challenges. On immigration, the economy - where Biden has received little credit for tackling inflation and trillion dollar investment - crime, the affordability and sense of addressing global warming, the wars in Gaza and financial support for Ukraine and NATO, and America’s role in the Global ferment, are challenging issues for the Democratic party.

On the eve of the Convention the latest Times/Siena poll for the New York Times shows a “dramatic reversal” in the standing of the Democratic Party with Kamala Harris leading Trump in the three crucial must-win battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, by a remarkable four percent margin in each of them, suggesting that more states could be in play in November.

Despite the turnaround in the fortunes of the Democratic party, the election at this point is too close to call. For Kamala Harris, the going will get much tougher.

Towering above the casting of votes is a timeless numbers game and a dated US constitution. Of the 240 million Americans who are entitled to vote, around 170 million votes are likely to be cast, with the election being decided by a few thousand votes in only six or seven US battle ground states and processed through an archaic Electoral College, conceived in 1787 and rejecting the idea of the popular vote.

Diminishing the prospects of a peaceful outcome, Trump has not yet confirmed he will accept the result, whatever the process, if he loses.

-Henry McLeish is a former First Minister of Scotland who served as Labour MP and MSP for Central Fife and is a visiting professor at the University of South Florida