Why Canadian Liberals' 'hockey stick' revival is a warning for Trump-style Tories

If Donald Trump is willing to turn on Canada, he is likely to do the same to the UK eventually

There is a family story about how my grandfather, John Rennie, told his brother Jim that he was going to leave Canada and return to Scotland. I’ve forgotten parts and embellished what remained, but hopefully retained something of its essence.

After John was hit by a train and seriously injured, he decided that life in Canada, where many of his family had moved from Scotland in the early 20th century, was not for him. But he had to let Jim, who lived far away, know.

So he rang a number for a remote station post and a rider took a message across a vast, seemingly endless plain, over high and jagged mountains, and through a raging river. Jim then travelled back through the raging river, over the high and jagged mountains, and across the vast, seemingly endless plain (the river might not have been raging, but you get the idea, it was a long, long way).

When Jim arrived after his epic journey to the phone, my grandfather said, “I’m awa’ hame, Jim” and, as calls were expensive at the time, that was basically that.

With many Canadian relations, I have always had a fondness for that country beyond the general sense of goodwill which most people have towards it. So when Donald Trump made clear he wasn’t actually joking about Canada becoming the US’s 51st state, I found myself celebrating the resulting backlash with a degree of pseudo-nationalist pride.

Mark Carney, who has since become Canada's Prime Minister and Liberal leader, speaks to supporters at a party to watch an ice hockey game against the US last month (Picture: Andrej Ivanov) | Getty Images

Canadiano coffee, please

Canadian shopkeepers have started taking US goods off the shelf as part of a “buy Canadian” campaign in response to Trump’s tariffs; one coffee shop has renamed the Americano as the “Canadiano”, which I hope catches on here; and Canadian fans at ice hockey games against American teams have started booing the US national anthem. In a recent ice hockey game between the US and Canada, won by the latter, there were three fights in the opening nine seconds.

There has also been a significant effect on Canada’s politics. Over the past three years, the ruling Liberal party had been in a state of decline, falling from 34 per cent in polls in January 2025 to just over 20 per cent in January this year. Facing an election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned and pundits confidently predicted that the somewhat Trumpian Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative party would romp to victory.

However, in the space of two months, the Liberals have seen an extraordinary revival, rising to 30 per cent in the polls, with the Conservatives sliding from about 45 to 40 per cent. Appropriately enough, on a graph, the Liberals’ support looks like an ice hockey stick with the handle forming the long gradual decline and the recent upsurge forming the blade.

Faced with an external attack on Canadian sovereignty, the Liberals are benefiting from nationalist sentiments as people rally to the flag. Poilievre’s slogan, “Canada First”, is aimed at Canadian nationalists but it is also an obvious echo of Trump’s “America first” and he is paying a price for it.

Poilievre ‘will kneel before’ Trump

As he took over from Trudeau as Liberal leader and Prime Minister, Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of England, said: “Donald Trump thinks – thinks – he can weaken us with his plan to divide and conquer. Pierre Poilievre's plan will leave us divided and ready to be conquered because a person who worships at the altar of Donald Trump will kneel before him, not stand up to him."

This should be a lesson for Conservatives in the UK who think acting like Trump is a winning formula because if the US President is willing to turn on Canada, he is willing to do the same to anyone, including the UK.

He has already turned on Ukraine as it fights for its freedom against the invading Russian forces of Vladimir Putin, falsely calling Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator”, falsely claiming Ukraine started the war, halting military aid and even withdrawing intelligence-sharing that could stop Russian missiles killing civilians. While Trump has not withdrawn the US from Nato, he has all-but fatally undermined confidence in America’s commitment to the alliance treaty’s pledge to treat an attack on one as an attack on all.

Trump’s closest political ally in the UK is Nigel Farage. Trump’s acolytes, like Elon Musk, have been attacking Labour and it seems certain that Trump’s America First attitude will eventually cause a clash with the UK’s interests in a way that cannot be ignored.

Tories can still save themselves

Suddenly, Labour might find itself leading a Canada-style campaign to stand up for Britain, which would make Trump’s apologists and supporters look rather unpatriotic. And if much of your support is based on nationalist sentiments, that could turn into an existential threat.

Reform UK is already so closely associated with Trump that it would be difficult to suddenly change tack, but the Conservatives, while showing signs of Trumpism, still have a chance to start backing away.

It is in their interests to do so, but it is also in the interests of the UK as a whole. As stock markets slump in response to Trumponomics – an echo of equally misguided Trussonomics – the reality of government by populist idiots may be starting to dawn on many voters.

Rally to Canada’s ice hockey stick!

Like immigration, globalisation produces a mix of problems and benefits. It is a system that lifts countries up, so that we all get richer, but can also create pockets of people who lose out. Trump’s isolationism, tariffs and trade wars might seem like the answer to those people.

However, the solution is evolution to ensure the benefits of globalisation are felt by as many people as possible and not a nationalist revolution that creates a world of ‘my country first’ politicians who will inevitably end up fighting with each other in one way or another.

My late grandfather’s one-time homeland, Canada, has raised its standard – an ice hockey stick – in opposition to Trump and the democratic world should rally to its cause.