SNP and Reform will benefit if Keir Starmer can't find ways to boost economy

With the Conservatives still on the back foot, the SNP and Reform are best placed to profit from Labour’s struggles to get the economy going

Despite all the plaudits won recently by Keir Starmer – for his skills as a ‘Trump whisperer’ and for helping to rally European support for Ukraine – figures showing the UK economy shrank by 0.1 per cent in January represented a stark reminder that he must urgently attend to domestic matters.

Since getting 34 per cent of the UK vote at the general election in July, Labour’s poll numbers have gradually fallen to about 25 or 26 per cent. And the Conservatives have fared little better, falling from 24 per cent at the election, to 21 per cent in recent surveys.

The big winner, according to the pollsters at least, has been Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, which got 14 per cent in July, but is now polling about the same as Labour.

If the UK slides into a full-blown recession, support for Starmer and Labour will plunge still further – however well he manages to plot a path through the current geopolitical turbulence. So Labour need to find ways to boost growth or they will soon be in serious trouble and the next four years could start to look very long indeed.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is under pressure to boost defence spending and get the economy growing (Picture: Dan Kitwood) | Getty Images

Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spring statement on March 26 represents an opportunity to try to repair some of the damage caused by her Budget last autumn and boost lacklustre business confidence. She needs to find ways to encourage investors that now is a good time to back Britain – not an easy task, given the negative growth figures.

The pressures on the public purse – including the need to increase defence spending – have already driven government efficiency to the top of the agenda and Labour will this week announce what are expected to be significant cuts to welfare spending.

However, this is expected to prompt a Labour rebellion that, depending on its size, may make Starmer seem dangerously unpopular and increasingly embattled. The recent plaudits, from political allies and opponents alike, may soon turn into brickbats. And, with the Tories still on the back foot, Labour’s woes are likely to most benefit Reform and the SNP. Make no mistake, Populism is alive and well in Britain.