Is the UK on the brink of a recession? This business bulletin explains why that might be the case

Hello, and welcome to the latest business bulletin on Friday, March 14.

First - a big blow for Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Britain’s economy shrunk in January following a sharp fall in the manufacturing sector. The ONS said the economy contracted by 0.1 per cent, which was behind expert predictions, and down from a 0.4 per cent rise in December.

Most economists had forecast GDP to rise in the first month of the year. The Tories have branded the Labour Government a "growth killer", while Rachel Reeves has blamed a changing world.

Donald Trump Trade Tariffs tensions

On that front, trade tensions between the US and its allies probably aren't going to help things here. US President Donald Trump has threatened a 200 per cent tariff on any alcohol coming to the US from the European Union. It's only the latest development in escalating trade tensions.

President Donald Trump has threatened a 200 per cent tariff on any alcohol coming to the US from the EU. | AFP via Getty Images

This particular threat was a response to the EU's plans for a 50 per cent tax on imports of US-whiskey - which in itself was part of the EU's retaliation package to Trump's tariffs on European metals.

Meanwhile, on the same topic, the EU's top diplomat, the Estonian Kaja Kallas, has said on TV that China is laughing at the US for its recent behaviour. And in addition to that, Trump has again suggested Canada would be better off as a US state. Investors seem to be spooked by Trump's behaviour and are possibly pivoting more towards Europe.

Grangemouth refinery future to be decided

And back in the UK, a long-awaited report on the future of the Grangemouth refinery site is expected to be published next week. Project Willow – which is being produced jointly with the UK Government – was due to be published by the end of last month.

The report 's looking at potential future uses for the site which could keep jobs in the area. The refinery is set to close in the coming months, with 400 roles at risk.

That's all for today. More on Monday. For more business headlines, news and features visit our sister website at InsiderMedia.com