Scottish Conservative conference: Why Tories north of the Border have reasons to look forward to the next general election – Murdo Fraser

Despite the First Minister’s ambitions, Scotland is more likely to be free of Humza Yousaf than ‘Tory-free’

The Scottish Conservatives gather in Aberdeen this weekend for our annual conference in better spirits than many people might expect. Polling south of the Border may continue to be grim for Rishi Sunak, but in Scotland the situation looks rather brighter. The Prime Minister certainly doesn’t have his troubles to seek, lagging behind Labour in the polls recently and struggling to get traction with the public for his political agenda.

Ultimately, he will be hoping that a relentless focus on economic progress, reducing inflation, helping with the cost of living, and stopping the boats, will convince people that he has more answers to the issues that affect Britain today than Keir Starmer, who seems think he can coast into Downing Street by standing for nothing.

Other than envisaging his own backside in the PM’s seat at the Cabinet table, Sir Keir does not seem to have a discernible vision for the country. There is clearly work for the Prime Minister to do, and he and his team are very conscious of that. But when he comes to Aberdeen at the end of the week, he will be visiting one of the parts of the United Kingdom where the Conservatives could well make gains at the coming general election.

The Scottish Conservative vote was squeezed in the Rutherglen by-election by pro-Union tactical voting, but the party stands to benefit from the same trend in other seats (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

This is not just an idle boast. The Conservatives won six Westminster constituencies in Scotland at the last election, and most Scotland-specific polling that is done suggests that we are currently on course to hold all six, albeit there will be an impact of boundary changes. There are also another half-dozen or so seats which, with a modest swing in our direction, the Conservatives could realistically gain from the SNP.

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In Angus, Perthshire, South Ayrshire, Argyll, and East Renfrewshire, the Conservatives are breathing down the necks of the SNP incumbents, who are having to defend their own party’s dismal track record of 17 years in government. There is an irony that so many SNP MPs who blame Westminster for all Scotland’s woes, but enjoy working there, will end up blaming their incompetent colleagues at Holyrood for losing their jobs.

Whilst Labour seem to be benefitting from the SNP’s decline if opinion polls are to be believed, it is significant that there are no Labour-Conservative marginals in Scotland. The seats we could win are all being defended by the SNP.

By-election message for SNP

The strength of Conservative support across Scotland is seen in recent council by-election results. Last month, in Dunblane and Bridge of Allan, there was another Conservative victory with an increase of more than eight per cent in the Conservative vote since 2022. In that ward, the SNP vote was down.

We had a similar result last week in Jedburgh, St Boswells and District. Here the Conservatives gained a seat from the SNP, with new councillor John Bathgate securing an astonishing near 60 per cent of the vote in the ward, with the SNP slumping to just 17 per cent. Whilst opinion polls may fascinate the political chatterati, the story told in actual election contests, with real votes being cast, is a more accurate indicator of the political mood in Scotland. And this tells us that where the contest is between the Conservatives and the SNP, the Conservative vote is increasing whilst that of the SNP continues to slip down the gurgler.

We have to see Scotland-wide opinion polls in the same context. In the Rutherglen parliamentary by-election last year the Conservative vote, in a contest where we lay in third place, was squeezed down, presumably by pro-Union tactical voting to get the SNP out. That same pro-Union tactical voting benefits the Conservatives in areas where we are challengers to the SNP.

All this rather puts into perspective Humza Yousaf’s hubristic ambition to “make Scotland Tory free”. The evidence of these recent electoral contests is that it is not the Scottish Conservatives who should fear the prospect of extinction at the next election, but rather his own party. Indeed, many within the SNP are debating how many seats have to be lost on his watch to make their party’s leadership a ‘Humza-free’ zone instead.

New digital 24/7 NHS

That said, in the Scottish Conservatives we know we have much to do to build our platform to be part of an alternative government for Scotland. Back in August, we published our “Grasping the Thistle” paper on Scotland’s economy, with a comprehensive agenda of policy ideas to help reverse our economic decline.

Last month this was followed up with a new detailed policy paper on the future of the NHS in Scotland, again bursting with reforms to improve the patient experience and patient outcomes from the NHS which has struggled to meet public expectations in recent years. We promise a new digital 24/7 health service, with easier access for patients’ appointments, reduced waiting times by better use of resources, and proper workforce planning. All this will be matched with a new personal contract with the NHS, expecting individuals to play their part in leading healthier lives, to take pressure off struggling services and overworked staff.

It is ideas like these, rather than the tiresome focus of the SNP on constitutional grievance, that will decide how people will vote in forthcoming electoral contests. The evidence so far shows that voters respond positively to a party putting forward positive ideas. The Conservatives would rather start rebuilding Scotland in 2024, rather than constantly rerunning the referendum of 2014, in a Brigadoon version of Groundhog Day.

That is in sharp contrast to both the SNP and the Labour party who seem committed to the negativity of claiming what they are not, rather than arguing a positive case for themselves, and the public is starting to notice. Sorry, Humza Yousaf, Scotland is more likely to be free of your leadership than “Tory free” after this year’s election.

Murdo Fraser is a Scottish Conservative MSP for Mid-Scotland and Fife