Why future of Scotland’s independence movement may be found in Quebec
I was asked at a Scottish Conservative leadership hustings last week what was the high point of my career in politics. Without hesitation, I had to say it was the night of September 18, 2014, exactly ten years ago today, when Scotland voted by a comprehensive margin to remain part of the United Kingdom.
The independence referendum of 2014 was a seminal moment in my political life, a true “once in a lifetime” event. Elections come and go, with different parties moving up and down, but the referendum had a real significance.
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Hide AdIf Scotland had voted Yes ten years ago, I believe we would be poorer and weaker as a result. Voting No meant we remained part of the security of the United Kingdom, sharing resources with other wealthier parts, and benefitting from levels of public spending that simply could not be afforded were we to go it alone. Voting No was a legacy gift to our children and future generations.
Swinney clutching at straws
Ten years on, the numbers for and against independence have shifted little. However, what is significant is that Scotland eventually leaving the United Kingdom is no longer seen as inevitable as it once was. Even those who support independence no longer believe that it is likely to happen any time soon.
There was a certain element of straw-clutching from the First Minister John Swinney in response to the latest polling, when he claimed that there was a youthful “independence generation” which would take Scotland to independence, given a poll showing almost two-thirds of 16 to 34-year-olds support separation. This claim is based on the clearly erroneous assumption that political views don’t change as people age.
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Hide AdEveryone knows that individuals become more conservative and risk averse as they get older. A 20-year-old with no family, property, investments, mortgage, or pension might well be attracted to take a punt on the uncertainties of independence, but the same individual 30 years older is likely to take a very different view.
Moreover, we are now a decade on from the 2014 referendum, which means that older pro-Union voters have been replaced by younger, supposedly pro-independence ones, but remarkably the headline figures have shifted hardly at all. The evidence doesn’t suggest that demographic changes are going to lead to independence, even if another referendum were in prospect.
Quebec’s youth against independence
Another indication of what Scotland’s constitutional future might hold can be found by looking at the situation across the Atlantic in Quebec. Quebec held two referendums on whether it should leave Canada, the first in 1980 and the second in 1995. The pro-Canada side won the 1995 referendum by a whisker, leading to an expectation that it might be “third time lucky” for the Quebec sovereigntists, as they were known.
Today’s opinion polls in Quebec tell a different story. The annual Confederation of Tomorrow survey in 2024 tells us that only 23 per cent of respondents describe themselves as mainly a sovereigntist, as against 18 per cent who say they are mainly federalist; 29 per cent placed themselves in between the two options, while another 23 per cent say they are neither one nor the other.
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Hide AdWhen the pollsters asked Quebecers if they agreed that Quebec’s sovereignty was an idea whose time had passed, 51 per cent of the area’s Francophones agreed.
Perhaps most interesting are the findings for younger adults. In 2024, only 16 per cent of Quebec Francophones aged 18 to 34 identified as mainly sovereigntists, and only 26 per cent disagreed that Quebec’s sovereignty is an idea whose time had passed. In both cases, these percentages were lower than for older generations. It seems to be the opposite to the situation in Scotland, where younger people are more pro-independence than older generations.
Comfort for unionists
In Quebec, Millennial and Gen Z Quebecers are less sovereigntist than their Gen X or Boomer counterparts. We are now nearly 30 years on from the last Quebec sovereignty referendum and while the generation who voted Yes at that point still perhaps have a hankering to depart from Canada, that is not a view largely shared by new voters too young to have participated in the votes of 1980 and 1995. For these young Quebecers, Quebec’s sovereignty is the cause of their parents’ or grandparents’ generation.
Those of us who want to see Scotland remain part of the United Kingdom, and believe it is manifestly in our national interest, can take comfort from what we see across the Atlantic. So much time and energy has been devoted towards the constitutional question in Scotland, to the detriment of other areas of policy, that there is a real prospect that eventually the voters just get tired of endlessly hearing about the same issue.
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Hide AdTories need a new narrative
It is a particular challenge for the SNP, whose leaders have sustained themselves in power for 17 years by dangling the carrot of another independence referendum in front of their supporters. With that prospect now diminished, they will have to fight the next Scottish election in 2026 on their record in government of what will by then be 19 years, with precious little success to point to.
It is also a challenge for my own party, the Scottish Conservatives. We have had great success as a party in recent years with the simple message “Vote for us to stop IndyRef2”. If that is, as it seems, no longer the threat it once was, we will need a new narrative and a positive message. That is what I am determined to provide should I be successful in being elected Scottish Conservative leader.
Exactly ten years after the 2014 referendum, the Union seems to be a lot more secure than at most points in the last decade. The threat of separation has not gone away entirely, but the debate does not overwhelm Scottish politics in the way that it once did. And that, to me, is a positive outcome.
Murdo Fraser is a Scottish Conservative MSP for Mid-Scotland and Fife
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