Reform UK is on the rise, but don't dismiss Starmer as one-term PM

Keir Starmer’s sudden conversion to talking tough on immigration shows UK party leaders are all Faragistas now

You can tell when governing politicians know they are in trouble, they immediately pivot to pick up on issues that are causing their support to haemorrhage. Yesterday provided a classic example. The Prime Minister decided to turn the volume control to 11 on the subject of legal immigration, calling some new, tighter rules one of Labour’s core values.

Readers might be forgiven for thinking about past Labour reassurances that the winter fuel allowance and protecting workers from damaging tax rises were core values – and a fat lot of good that did ten million pensioners and the thousands of workers now laid off. Changing those particular policies would cost the head of his Chancellor, for they were her policies, so for now Keir Starmer is not pivoting to change them.

Immigration is a different issue altogether, for the UK’s intentionally loose approach to immigration was an (unstated) Conservative policy. Although successive Tory prime ministers often talked tough, they all ran administrations that found justifications for increasing visa issuance that was contrary to their promises of lowering the numbers.

READ MORE: The SNP pitch to Labour's Anas Sarwar to support a Scottish Visa Bill

As Reform UK's popularity continues to rise, other parties are starting to sound like Nigel Farage (Picture: Chris J Ratcliffe) | Getty Images

Reform ahead in the polls

Unsurprisingly, with Reform UK moving into a clear lead over Labour in three recent UK polls last week, the Prime Minister is suddenly talking tough on immigration too. It would seem when it comes to UK party leaders they are all Faragistas now.

First, a Find Out Now poll placed Reform on 33 per cent with Labour second on only 20 per cent. The Conservatives were on 16 per cent and Lib Dems below on 15 per cent. Then the Techne Westminster tracker placed Reform on 28 per cent against Labour’s 23 per cent, Conservatives on 19 per cent, ahead of Lib Dems on 14 per cent.

Just to buttress the trend, the i newspaper published a BMG poll that placed Reform on 32 per cent, with Labour on 22 per cent, Conservatives on 19 per cent and Lib Dems on 13 per cent. This was all on the back of Labour losing the Runcorn by-election and suffering serious council losses in real polls the previous week.

Second in Scotland and Wales

For those doubting the salience of Reform’s growing support, thinking it is an English preoccupation, the first YouGov/ITV Wales poll conducted since the general election has Plaid Cymru on 30 per cent, Reform on 25 per cent and Labour slumping to 18 per cent.

In Scotland, a Survation poll last week also put Reform in second place with 19 per cent for constituencies and 20 per cent for lists, overtaking Labour on 19/18 with the SNP on 33/29. Such statistics suggest voting Labour, Tory or Lib Dem instead of Reform will split the pro-UK vote, enough to gift seats to the SNP.

On Sunday an Ipsos poll put a cherry on top by reporting its polling showed the British public considered five-MP Reform the main opposition to the Labour government, not the 120-MP Conservatives.

I’ve no doubt that Labour has been planning its immigration White Paper for some time but the way it is being pitched to the public and how it will now be given emphasis in coming months is all about trying to head off that growing support for Reform.

‘Surrender Summit’

Unfortunately for the Prime Minister he will find out quickly that the record number of illegal immigrants that are landing via inflatables on south coast beaches will undermine all the tough talk and tighter regulations he can muster.

The next pitch to win hearts and minds will come on Monday next week when Starmer’s ‘Surrender Summit’ is held in an attempt to reset relationships with the European Union. The central focus will be announcing a defence and security arrangement that will tie the UK up in various legal commitments, adding to the existing EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement (T&CA).

The reason for this odd manner of delivering a defence pact is that when EU leaders “invite” any UK Government to participate in a future military intervention, possibly against Russia or a proxy of Putin, it will be very difficult for the UK to decline as it will then raise the prospect of challenges through the protocols of the T&CA. Starmer is walking into a trap.

For obtaining this unnecessary collective agreement (we are already in Nato after all), we are being asked to extend the preferential and generous access to our fishing waters for another four years and pay into joint defence funding so we can receive some money back.

Smoking and vaping

Starmer’s reset is incoherent. While schmoozing the EU on defence, he is also following through with policies that deviate from the EU – such as continuing with his Tobacco and Vape Bill that would not be allowed under the EU’s Tobacco Directive.

The bill will criminalise the sale of all tobacco products to anyone born on or after 1 January 2009 – meaning in 2030 a 20-year-old would not be able to legally buy cigarettes, yet a 21-year-old friend who may only be one day older would be able to. Try policing that!

The Bill also restricts the advertising and sale of many vapes products. All its measures combined are just the sort of legislation that plays right into Reform’s hands and will drive people to support Nigel Farage. By reducing available alternatives to tobacco, it’s not even good for public health and shows Labour remains out of touch with its core support.

While Starmer is struggling against wholesale disenchantment of former supporters (a third of previous Labour voters now regret their choice) – a word of caution about believing he is already beat.

Starmer is in power and, while unpopular, he can make things happen. Were he to do more things people liked (or not do things that annoy his own support), he cannot yet be dismissed as a one-term prime minister.

Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European parliaments and editor of ThinkScotland.org