How Nicola Sturgeon’s war on Westminster created decade of lost opportunities for Scotland

After Alex Salmond’s resignation as SNP leader in 2014, Nicola Sturgeon adopted a much more aggressive approach and the Conservatives responded with an equally hostile attitude

Anniversaries matter. Our politics reflects this. Today marks ten years since the independence referendum in 2014. While there will be few celebrations or special events, it is worth cutting through partisan views to assess the real significance of the September referendum which offered Scots the opportunity to leave or remain in the United Kingdom.

What lessons might we learn, as Scotland also celebrates 25 years of devolved government, which, in the long term, may prove to be of much greater significance to the future of Scotland and the Union?

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Conceding new powers to the Scottish Parliament in 2014 and the promise of more powers, delivered in 2016, the then Prime Minister David Cameron agreed to holding the referendum, a significant achievement for Alex Salmond, then First Minister.

More than 85 per cent of eligible Scots voted, the highest turnout for any election ever held in the UK, resulting in a victory for the No campaign, 55.3 to 44.7 percent. The outcome was decisive but also significant in a number of other ways that are only now becoming evident.

Job done, Scotland was ignored

At an early morning Downing Street press briefing, a few hours after the result was announced, David Cameron, in so many words, confirmed the struggle was over and it was time to focus on England. This action heralded a period in which Westminster and the Tory government, job done, gave up on Scotland, which established a political mindset totally ignoring the real message from the referendum result. Since then successive Tory governments have consistently confirmed their lack of interest in devolution, creating a sense of anger and disrespect in the minds of many Scots voting in elections in the last decade.

Often overlooked is the size of the leave vote, which confounded a few pundits and reflected a significant vote for independence. Since then support for exiting the Union has remained consistently high in public opinion polls regardless of the recent and understandable decline of the SNP. If 191,969 votes had shifted to the other side, Scotland might now have been independent. The referendum result probably and more accurately reveals a lingering restlessness of Scots, unconvinced of independence or leaving the Union, but still searching for a better, balanced, more secure and respectful relationship with an old Union.

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Nicola Sturgeon's style of government saw many important issues being sidelined (Picture: Andy Buchanan/pool)Nicola Sturgeon's style of government saw many important issues being sidelined (Picture: Andy Buchanan/pool)
Nicola Sturgeon's style of government saw many important issues being sidelined (Picture: Andy Buchanan/pool) | Getty Images

Sturgeon’s aggressive approach

A tinderbox of emotions, identity, history, culture, resentment, pride, patriotism, respect, nationalism, a declining sense of Britishness, frustration and ambition, still exists and could ignite at any time. What Westminster does matters and shapes Scotland’s mood.

But key to understanding the outcome of 2014 is the decisive shift in the mood and direction of nationalism. After the resignation of Alex Salmond, Nicola Sturgeon, the new SNP leader, adopted a much more combative and aggressive approach to Westminster, which the Tory government was happy to accommodate with an equally belligerent and hostile attitude.

Misreading the result of the referendum and imagining another ballot could be quickly secured, the SNP’s new leader embarked on a strategy which has greatly contributed to Scotland’s decade of lost opportunity, where the single-minded pursuit of independence and waging war with Westminster saw Scotland left behind, isolated and focussed on a single policy.

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A turbulent decade

Important issues, vital for nation building and fulfilling the original aims and expectations of devolution, were sidelined. This narrow and single-minded embrace of independence by the SNP and the consolidation of Tory disinterest in four-nation politics have changed Scottish politics and distorted the original ideas of devolution.

Scotland, in the aftermath of the referendum, has gone through a turbulent decade where the discussion of issues and policy have become wrapped up in conflict, courts and corrosive exchanges of political intolerance. Populism, nationalism and status quo unionism have created a war-zone mentality where positive intergovernmental relations and securing the full benefits of devolved government have suffered a setback.

This interpretation of the referendum result exposes a decade of lost opportunities. Scotland has not provided better governance and, unlike the early years of devolution, has not delivered groundbreaking legislation or more consensual politics – the original aims of devolution. Scotland, ten years on from the referendum, is underperforming.

New ideas, imagination and leadership

First, public opinion is more politically divided now than at any time in the last 30 years. There is no unity of purpose about Scotland’s future in parliament, the nation or Westminster.

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Second, independence has lost traction and momentum with the public who are rightly focussed on more pressing issues of immediate concern which should be uppermost in the minds of any governing party: an aspiring nation can never succeed with such deep and dispiriting levels of poor health, poverty and inequality.

Third, Scotland is stalled. We are making little progress on many fronts. A progressive nation must pioneer new solutions to old problems: yes, finance is critical but so are new ideas, imagination and leadership, leading to more governing and less campaigning, if we are to revive a reputation for innovation and enterprise that so characterised the Scottish Enlightenment.

The tyranny of simple answers

An extensive refashioning of the Union and a bolder embrace of devolution is vital. Scotland must be set free from an increasingly insular and divisive future.

There are new opportunities now for the Labour government at Westminster and following the change of the SNP leadership at Holyrood. A new chapter on devolution must be written, based on a Union of the nations, not just of Crowns and Parliaments, where the pride and passion of an ancient and ambitious nation is worthy of more respect. Scotland’s parliament, people and politicians must escape the tyranny of pursuing simple answers to extraordinarily complex problems and embrace the long view.

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In 2024, a poverty of debate is blighting our politics. What kind of country do Scots want? How do we build a resilient nation? How can we frame a consensus to overcome deep and toxic divisions? The next decade must answer these questions.

Henry McLeish is a former First Minister of Scotland

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