Nationalism is not dead – despite the SNP’s rout

Amid the general sense of euphoria among Labour supporters, it is perhaps hard for them not to get carried away by the talk of the party’s landslide election victory and the comprehensive rout of not just the Conservatives but also the SNP. After all, across the UK, with two constituencies to count, the Tories had lost a staggering 250 seats, while Labour gained 211, and in Scotland, Labour added 36 seats while the SNP lost 38.

After bringing 14 years of Conservative rule to an end, few could begrudge a bit of a celebration and some wild claims about what it all means by those on the left. However, it is partly because of the quirks of the first-past-the-post system that Labour's victory appears so complete.

The actual numbers of voters, rather than seats, present a markedly different picture. UK-wide, Labour received nearly 9.7 million votes, followed by the Conservatives on 6.8 million, then, ominously, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK on 4.1 million, and the Liberal Democrats on just under 3.5 million. Reform may feel particularly aggrieved – despite getting more votes than the Lib Dems, they won just four seats, while the party of proportional representation picked up more than 70.

John Swinney's SNP lost a lot of seats but still persuaded more than 708,000 people to vote for them (Picture: Michael Boyd/Getty Images)

Meanwhile, in Scotland, more than 845,000 people voted for Labour, the SNP were backed by over 708,000 voters, with the Tories on nearly 305,000, the Liberal Democrats on 216,000, and Reform on 165,045.

So unionists of other parties who find themselves joining in the Labour celebrations, in the belief that the SNP are a busted flush, should think again. Another way of looking at these results is to ponder the chaos and incompetence of the SNP’s recent years in government, and then think about what might happen to their level of support if they were actually doing a good job or had a more effective, charismatic leader. Some nationalist politicians may be asking themselves this question right now.

Polls have also persistently shown that the country remains roughly split down the middle over independence. The apparent decision by some nationalists to ‘lend’ their votes to Labour in order to help oust the Conservatives – it’s unclear how many people did this and how many have defected entirely from the nationalist cause – may also mean that the SNP can look forward to something of a resurgence.

John Swinney to rethink independence strategy after disastrous election result

The new Labour government has provided fresh hope. Rishi Sunak clearly seemed out of ideas – the surprise election campaign announcement that he wanted to bring back national service had a ring of desperation to it – so many people will give Keir Starmer the benefit of the doubt. However if his government starts to struggle to improve the economy or make inroads into the cost-of-living crisis, some of these SNP-to-Labour switchers may start to flip back.

When the public’s mood is one of despair that their situation will never improve – the well of discontent from which populist parties like the SNP and Reform UK draw their strength – they are prone to taking a leap of faith, to taking a political risk with their future. This was undoubtedly a factor in the 2016 Brexit referendum when some voters seemed willing to roll the dice, and may now be regretting it.

So the independence movement is far from finished. In fact, given the circumstances, it still seems to be displaying remarkable resilience. Those who care about the Union should, therefore, be wary of complacency. These are volatile political times, and strange things may yet happen. The battle for hearts and minds over independence is not over yet, not by a long chalk.