Why John Swinney may not call a snap election even if he wants to

With the SNP now a minority government, they need support from other parties if they are to govern effectively. They have been in this position before, when they were largely successful in navigating the complexities of what’s sometimes called a ‘hung parliament’.

However, times have changed. The party’s spat with the Scottish Greens – following the very public sacking of co-leaders Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie by Humza Yousaf – looks set to continue, and it is not clear that John Swinney has the votes he needs to pass the Scottish Budget in December.

Propping up a struggling nationalist government would be unthinkable for Labour, given it aims to oust them at the next election, and even more so for the Conservatives. If the Greens cannot be persuaded to at least abstain, it’s possible the seemingly reluctant Liberal Democrats and Alba MSP Ash Regan could be won over, but only time will tell.

This raises the prospect of the SNP falling to pass a new Budget and either calling a snap election, which John Swinney has admitted could happen, or attempting to struggle on by making ad hoc changes to government spending.

Even for a government doing well, this would be a monumental crisis. However, the government’s unfolding programme of spending cuts – don’t say “SNP austerity”, it’s “living within your means”, apparently – is likely to result in a further slide down the polls for the SNP after their recent election drubbing.

Throw in the chaos of a Budget crisis, and the situation looks bleak for the First Minister. Perhaps as bleak as that which faced Rishi Sunak, who decided to ‘go early’ rather than cling to power even as things got worse.

However, in Scotland, if an election was held early next year, there would still, by law, need to be another general election in 2026. This acts as a disincentive to all concerned to call an early election even if they think that is the best thing to do, for party, country or both.

Fixed-term elections were a good idea, but it’s starting to feel like turbulent times need greater flexibility.