Humza Yousaf's year as First Minister defied expectations but he may not last much longer – Paul Wilson

A Labour general election victory would rob the SNP of their greatest recruiting sergeant – an unpopular Tory Prime Minister

He has already proven many doubters wrong. When Humza Yousaf took over from Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister and SNP leader, some thought he might manage only a Liz Truss-sized tenure, but later this month he will mark one year in the top job.

Putting down roots in Bute House is one thing, but advancing his party’s raison d’etre of independence is quite another. And, a year into his reign, the prospect seems more distant than perhaps at any point since the 2014 referendum.

It’s not that he doesn’t continue to bang the drum. Yousaf claimed in a speech at the London School of Economics this week that an independent Scotland could join the European Union and enjoy an increase in living standards. The beat goes on but fewer people seem to be playing along, or even listening.

Humza Yousaf has lasted far longer than Liz Truss but his term as First Minister may be short-lived after a Labour general election victory (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

SNP support in decline

Angus Robertson, Yousaf’s Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution, External Affairs and Culture, has been promoting a series of papers called “Building a New Scotland” since June 2022. The 11th and latest paper, launched earlier this month, set out how an independent Scotland would be a “good global citizen” with a seat at the UN. Previous papers covered areas including citizenship, the economy and culture. But the publications could hardly be said to have captured the public imagination or set the heather on fire.

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Support for independence, however, is as high as ever, with Scotland pretty much split down the middle, according to the polls. But how solid is this support when backing for the main independence party, the SNP, appears to be in decline? Some recent polls have put Labour ahead of the nationalists, despite currently having just two MPs in Scotland.

There may be many voters who favour Scotland leaving the UK, in theory, at some point in the future. It’s perhaps an interesting, non-threatening notion in the abstract, when there is no prospect of a referendum any time soon. If support for independence does not translate into votes for the SNP, if substantial numbers who say they support independence are willing to vote Labour, then nationalist momentum has, at best, stalled. As delegates gather for the party’s National Campaign Council in Perth this weekend, the glory days of packed-out arenas hanging on Sturgeon’s every word are long gone.

Donations drying up

The party coffers aren’t what they were either. The SNP could once have hoped to draw on the support of the EuroMillions lottery-winning couple Colin and Christine Weir. Now, Electoral Commission figures reportedly show the SNP received just one major donation from a living person last year, £5,000, with the rest, £253,000, coming as bequests in wills.

As donations dry up, the police investigation into the party’s finances continues. Operation Branchform has no doubt damaged support for the SNP, but it’s just one of several factors contributing to its decline. Voters might struggle to identify many things the Scottish Government is responsible for that have demonstrably improved since 2007. After 17 years in power, it is increasingly untenable for the SNP to point the finger of blame at Westminster for failings in devolved areas.

Yousaf must also contend with an independence movement that has fractured in a way that seemed unthinkable during most of Sturgeon-Alex Salmond era. A slim majority of SNP members did not vote for Yousaf in the first round of last year’s three-way leadership contest.

Muscular unionism

Some independence supporters claim there are those among the party’s MPs who have become too accustomed to and comfortable with Westminster life. Salmond’s Alba party might seem a more attractive prospect to some nationalists, particularly given the SNP’s contentious power-sharing deal with the Scottish Greens.

The coalition, or “Bute House Partnership”, as both parties describe it, has been blamed for a rash of unpopular policies, such as the doomed deposit return scheme, the thwarted Gender Bill, and the misbegotten and ultimately binned plans for highly protected marine areas.

With Alister Jack as Secretary of State for Scotland, the Tories at Westminster have adopted what has been described as “muscular unionism”, criticising the SNP for supposedly veering into reserved areas of government, and trumpeting increased amounts of investment in Scotland directly from the Treasury, bypassing Holyrood.

Inter-governmental relations appear to have completely broken down. Keith Brown, the SNP’s depute leader, even went so far as to suggest nationalist MPs refuse to enter the Commons following the Speaker’s controversial decision last month to allow a Labour amendment to the party’s motion about a Gaza ceasefire.

Although Yousaf and SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn would wholeheartedly agree the party is treated with “contempt” in London, they were both quick to dismiss Brown’s proposed Sinn Fein-style absenteeism. But the fact Brown even suggested it speaks volumes on how disconnected the SNP feels from the UK democratic process.

Salmond may not have seen eye-to-eye with David Cameron but the two were at least on speaking terms. Otherwise, Salmond could not have talked Cameron into the 2014 referendum. In contrast, Yousaf is in no position to talk Rishi Sunak into anything.

Two decades of SNP rule to end?

For all of these reasons and many more, Yousaf does not have his troubles to seek as he marks one year as First Minister. But the greatest threat to his SNP, and the ultimate goal of independence, may be yet to come.

It is no accident that an extended period of SNP government has largely coincided with an lengthy dose of Tory rule at Westminster. A resounding Labour victory in the forthcoming general election would deprive the SNP of arguably its greatest recruiting sergeant – an unpopular Tory Prime Minister.

If this happens, and there's every indication that it will, a spell in opposition after nearly 20 years in power may be exactly what beleaguered, divided and exhausted SNP members need to regroup and focus on the only cause that truly unites them. And at that point, a break with the continuity embodied by Yousaf – the “continuity candidate” for party leadership in 2023 – would surely be inevitable.