How Scotland can learn from Norway and escape the trap of short-term politics

Next month’s Scotland 2050 conference, to be attended by Scottish political leaders, economists and more, is about finding a long-term plan that will help this country thrive

Like many people who are about to get married, I can’t help but think about the future, what comes next and also in the long term. The same should be true for those who aspire to lead Scotland politically but, sadly, long-term thinking has been largely missing from our national conversation.

In my opinion, it’s high time that we had a frank conversation about where we want Scotland to be by 2050, how we tackle its big issues and how we make sure that we grasp any future opportunities.

However, by its nature, politics is very much about the short term. With the Scottish Parliament’s five-year election cycle, it is understandable that politicians tend to think within that framework.

All too often, as we head into another election, we hear the same mantras from politicians about improving the NHS, building more homes, investing in the economy, and getting people back into work, all in the hope that it will capture the attention of voters and persuade them to support a political party which aspires to govern Scotland.

Former Cabinet minister Rory Stewart has explained why the practice of regularly reshuffling government ministers makes civil servants resistant to change (Picture: Leon Neal) | Getty Images

More than the usual spiel

Undeniably these issues are important and they will play a leading role in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election campaigns, but what is missing is a plan for the future that transcends the five-year political cycle and offers a long-term, strategic vision.

Over the last 11 years, Scotland has been involved in two referendums, two Scottish Parliament elections, two sets of local council elections, and four general elections. No wonder there’s a degree of election fatigue.

To capture the attention and imagination of the Scottish electorate, politics has to be more than just the usual ‘vote for me’ spiel. We need politicians who are prepared to think outside the box, think big, think bold, and think about the kind of Scotland they envision under their leadership, in a way that captures hearts and minds.

If they can present an ambitious, future-focussed vision of what this country could become, people may, once again, be reinvigorated and inspired by politics as a force for good, a driver of progress that benefits us all. Fail to do this, and the result will be a low voter turnout in next year’s election, and growing cynicism about politics.

Why short-termism hinders change

In his book, Politics on the Edge, former Conservative minister, Tory leadership candidate and now leading political podcaster Rory Stewart highlighted the limitations of short-term approaches to public service delivery.

Stewart, who was prisons minister for 18 months, explained he could understand why civil servants “resisted energetic ministers”. “Some prisons ministers – who seemed to lack clear ideas and actions – could be reshuffled annually with little effect on the system. But too much clarity and energy from ministers such as [Michael] Gove or perhaps me – who were reshuffled every year – meant reverses and re-reversals which could only leave a shaky system spinning and churning water in our wake.”

History provides other examples of what can happen when there is no long-term plan. Cast your mind back to the 1980s when the closure of coal mines had devastating effects on mining communities across the country. Under the then Conservative government, there was no “just transition” – as promised for the oil and gas industries today – and the consequences were felt for decades. If there had been a long-term, strategic plan to help communities cope, this could have been avoided.

Norway’s wealth fund

Norway is a leading example of a country that has benefited from long-term thinking. Following the North Sea oil and gas boom that began in the late 1960s, its government recognised the potential of oil and gas revenue and created a national wealth fund, with its citizens at the heart of the decision-making process.

The aim of the fund has been to finance public services, such as healthcare, infrastructure and education, but also to act as a buffer against fluctuations in international oil prices. Part of its ethos is to ensure that future generations will continue to benefit from the money raised.

The above is only one example of why I believe Scotland needs its own long-term plan. Focusing on five years won’t touch the sides of this country’s deepest problems. If we can develop a long-term strategic view – one that all parties can get behind – this will result in a better and more progressive Scotland with a societal dividend that will benefit all.

To harness the power of long-term thinking will require some realpolitik and cooperation across party lines, but I’m a believer in devolution and a believer in the Scottish Parliament. I really do think it is possible to bring about a fundamental shift in our style of politics because I sense there is the political will and a real desire to focus more on the long term.

Scotland 2050 is free

That is exactly what Scotland 2050 – a political conference I’m organising involving First Minister John Swinney, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, Alex Cole-Hamilton from the Scottish Liberal Democrats, Cherie Blair, Professor Mairi Spowage of the Fraser of Allander Institute and more – is all about.

We need to ask questions about where we want Scotland to be by 2050 and how we tackle the big issues – of which, let’s be honest, there are many. We also need to identify future opportunities and work out how to take advantage of them.

Recognising that everyone should be part of the conversation about Scotland’s future, I have intentionally made Scotland 2050 a free, ticketed event to ensure it can be attended by a diverse cross-section of society. So come along and be part of building a bright future for your country!

Scotland 2050 will be held at the Assembly Rooms, George Street, Edinburgh, on June 17. Go to www.scotland-2050.co.uk to secure your free ticket.

Barrie Cunning is a former Scottish Labour party candidate and managing director of Pentland Communications