How Keir Starmer is making best of Donald Trump's bad job (despite SNP's bad advice)

Scotland should be glad that Keir Starmer, and not the SNP, is in charge of the response to Donald Trump’s tariffs

All wars attract armchair generals and trade wars are no exception. There is no shortage of advice available to the Prime Minister in his efforts to navigate a way through the trickiest of channels. So far, he is doing pretty well and should stick to his route.

A chapter of historic significance is being written in which the United States has torn up the rules of world trade – that it was largely responsible for formulating – while pivoting away from alliances which have underpinned our post-war era, driven by people who know little of Europe and care less.

As Thomas L Friedman wrote in the New York Times on Thursday, nobody can foresee the implications if “America suddenly shifts from a benign hegemon to a predator; from the world’s most important proponent of free trade to a global tariffing giant; from the protector of the European Union to telling Europe it’s on its own”.

Donald Trump holds up a chart showing what tariff will be charged on imports from different countries around the world (Picture: Chip Somodevilla) | Getty Images

70 million Trump voters

With dazzling rapidity, these changes seem to be unfolding before our eyes, driven by an individual whose judgment few of us would trust. We need to adjust to the possibility that the America we want to believe in is no longer the one that exists.

By and large, the Americans we come in contact with are nice people with whom it is easy to identify. The fact that 70 million voted for Donald Trump reminds us that America has always had a hard core of far-right politics while time and the demographic mix have moved it further away from historic loyalties, JD Vance and Elon Musk being the personifications.

These are potentially seismic shifts which must necessitate the UK’s own reassessment of where its strategic interests lie, and that will be no bad thing. However, these big themes are for another day. The immediate problem is tariffs and how to minimise their impact on the UK economy. That is the duty of the Prime Minister.

The armchair generals want to get tough. For example, I heard the SNP’s spokesman on the economy, Dave Doogan MP, declare that Starmer must “stiffen his backbone” and stand up to President Trump. Scottish businesses can only be grateful that Mr Doogan is not in charge of their destiny.

Measured, pragmatic

By historical happenstance – ie Brexit – the UK has a bit of room to duck and weave, which is exactly what Starmer must continue to do. Given the unpredictability of the people he is dealing with, and one in particular, there is no guarantee this approach will succeed. But what would?

An instant resort to retaliation would certainly have been counter-productive and deprived us of whatever wriggle room, or prospects for a bespoke trade deal, that might exist. That is a high price to pay for someone else’s stiff backbone or trade war rhetoric.

Even if through gritted teeth, it should be possible to recognise that Starmer is playing it as well as possible, step by step. The Scotch Whisky Association – who have more to lose than most – summed it up. They were “disappointed” by a ten per cent tariff but “continue to support a measured and pragmatic approach”. And so should say all of us.

The prospects of President Trump and his gung-ho sycophants being frightened by the threat of retaliation are minimal. In fact, it will only encourage them since the certainty of counter-measures will have been factored in. We can look forward to lots of noisy denunciations of new-found foes, to rally the Maga base. That is not a firing line we really want to be in.

Trump’s long-time tariff mantra

The most revealing film clip I saw this week came from more than 40 years ago when a young Donald Trump, marking out his territory for public attention, was propagating tariffs as the answer to America’s industrial ills. The language he used then was almost identical to his Rose Garden reality show on Wednesday.

Retaliation from external sources will not lead to any Damascene re-evaluation of that lifelong mantra but what happens within America is a different matter. As Liz Truss discovered, conviction politics are a poor defence against the money markets which are entirely unappeased by the promise of long-term gain in exchange for short-term pain.

That is another good reason for Starmer to avoid an over-reaction. With Trump, what is here today may be gone tomorrow, almost literally. If not only the stock markets but also the polls continue a downwards trajectory, then the pressures to pull back will be intense. At that point, another large dose of bluster could provide cover for a strategic retreat. Who knows? The honest answer – nobody.

Resetting relations with EU

Whatever damage is done to the UK or other economies, the biggest short-term losers are bound to be American consumers who will quickly pay significantly more for a vast range of goods and services. Most American families are far from wealthy and a fair proportion of these 70 million who placed their faith in Trump may baulk at paying for his bombast.

It was encouraging to see the defeat of a Trumpian candidate in an election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, a contest which would not normally command our attention. However, the fact that the sinister Elon Musk invested $25 million in the outcome and lost made it significant. Equally, the collapse in Tesla sales is a source of hope. People really can make a difference and so it may prove with tariffs.

Not all of the UK’s diplomatic efforts must be devoted to soothing Washington. There is a new urgency about taking sensible steps to reset the relationship with the European Union which is, apart from anything else, a much bigger trade partner than the United States. It is an impossibilist demand to “rejoin the EU” but brick by brick, we need to push ahead with rebuilding the bridges.