General election 2024: Tories may lose more votes if they decide to cling to power for as long as possible – Christine Jardine

The longer the wait, the more the public’s frustration with an unpopular government may grow

On January 1, it is always tempting to offer predictions for the year ahead. The climate, the economy, our political landscape are all popular subjects for conjecture. But if the past few years have taught us anything, it’s surely that the future is a mystery to which we have few clues.

Except perhaps for one thing. This year a general election will be called. Technically polling day could be as late as January 2025, but even that option dictates that by Christmas we will be well into election mode. Arguably we're there already, just waiting to discover when Rishi Sunak and his advisors will summon up the courage to go to the country.

Speculation about a spring election gained fresh impetus with the Chancellor’s announcement that Budget day will be March 6. But what could that mean? Will there be a tax giveaway to appease Tories unhappy at recent record-high levels? Or will we see a public sector spending spree in a bid to change the current desperate narrative? And will that be enough to close the impressive lead that the Labour party has opened up in the opinion polls?

Rishi Sunak has a big decision to make about the timing of the general election (Picture: Justin Tallis/WPA pool/Getty Images)

Chaos at the heart of government

Personally, I am not convinced that either the date or any last-minute action plan will make much difference. Too many people have suffered in a cost-of-living crisis certainly exacerbated, if not largely created by a Tory Prime Minister in the shape of Liz Truss.

The pandemic certainly was not the Conservatives’ fault. But all the evidence from the public inquiry is of chaos at the heart of government and a vacuum where leadership should have been. Then there is the lack of meaningful, long-term support this winter for those struggling through the energy crisis, with unaffordable mortgage interest rates, rent rises, a housing crisis and a dependence on food banks that is unacceptable.

The list of reasons for the Prime Minister to be hesitant about an election is lengthy, even before he considers whether he can count on the support of so many of his own right-wing backbench MPs. It is not a promising scenario for a party seeking re-election and probably an argument for waiting as long as he can before taking the plunge and going to the palace to see the King.

So perhaps an autumn or even a winter election then. But that is a gamble. The longer the wait, the more the public’s frustration with the government might grow. So many of the people I talk to every day have had enough of the current Cabinet.

For them, and for me too, the sooner we can go to the polls the better. If it goes the way that the opinion polls are predicting, what will come next for a bitterly divided Conservative party in opposition? Or indeed for the SNP who must fear what Labour’s renewed popularity will mean for them at Westminster.

Without wishing to be cruel, neither of those are the things that will keep me, or I suspect many of my constituents, awake at night. We have work to do to get our country back into shape and our economy working for us all. Here’s hoping we can make a start in 2024. Happy New Year.

Christine Jardine is Scottish Liberal Democrat MP for Edinburgh West