Scottish Tories can avoid the general election disaster facing Rishi Sunak and co – Adam Morris

By taking on the SNP’s dismal track record – and avoiding talking about Keir Starmer and immigration – the Scottish Conservatives could end up popping Champagne corks as results come in

Most Tories watched through their fingers as Theresa May stood on the steps of Downing Street, the morning after the 2017 general election, and attempted to claim the event as a triumph. In reality, it had been a humiliating night, the party grimly holding on against Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour, and relying on a somewhat ludicrous arrangement with Northern Ireland’s DUP in order to govern.

But in Scottish Conservative central office, we were popping the Champagne corks. For all it had been a catastrophe down south, the party up here had increased the number of MPs from one to 13. It was a stunning result for us, and we didn’t care one bit that the rest of the party was in turmoil.

While the dust was settling on May’s lamentable election campaign, we’d just deposed Alex Salmond in his beloved Gordon seat and ousted the SNP’s Westminster leader Angus Robertson in Moray. It signalled what was to become a curious pattern. If the Tories had a bad night in England, it would be a good night in Scotland, and vice versa. The Scottish Conservatives should take heart from this as they prepare for the next general election.

Douglas Ross's Scottish Conservatives have reasons to look forward to the next election, despite the party's troubles at Westminster (Picture: Peter Summers/Getty Images)

The trend emerged in 2015. Despite widespread predictions of a hung parliament, David Cameron secured an unexpected majority, returning the best Conservative result since 1992. But that was no use to us. We sat glumly as David Mundell clung onto Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale to remain our only Scottish MP, allowing those irksome panda gags to continue.

Boris Johnson triumphant, but Scots Tories lose seats

Fast-forward two years and the fortunes were reversed; those flute glasses clinked in Scotland while a post-mortem got underway in England. Then, in 2019, Boris Johnson wiped the floor with Labour, but the Conservatives in Scotland suffered – largely because of his unpopularity north of the Border – and our MP count came down from 13 to just six. Those who were booted out said it was the ‘Boris factor’ that turned off many of the constituents who had voted for them two years earlier.

Next year will bring another general election campaign and, unless there’s a dramatic change in fortunes, Sir Keir Starmer will sweep to power, with many polls predicting a real walloping for Rishi Sunak. The party in Scotland should make peace with the fact that the UK will have a Labour government, and concentrate on their own affairs.

There are several factors working in the Tories’ favour in Scotland which aren’t relevant to the rest of the UK. Oil and gas is the big one. Anyone whose livelihood is dependent on the North Sea energy sector must surely have reservations voting for Labour or the SNP. That includes a raft of seats in and around Aberdeen, but also increasingly in parts of central Scotland – like Falkirk and Helensburgh – where policies in relation to the future of refineries and the goods supplying them are beginning to come under scrutiny.

Workers want to know which politicians are going to sell them out. The SNP has damaged its reputation on oil and gas through its questionable relationship with the Scottish Greens, while Labour have also made headlines for threatening to “turn off the taps” on Scotland’s only mega-industry.

Rwanda and Brexit rows

Both Labour and the SNP will be preparing to slog it out across the populous parts of central Scotland as they seek to win in what they each regard as their working-class strongholds. That leaves constituencies elsewhere – including the north-east, Tayside, Perthshire and the south of Scotland – ripe for Tory picking.

Even a modest reduction in SNP support in those places brings swathes of new voters into play. Such a factor simply doesn’t exist in England; the Tories maxed out under Boris – especially in so-called Red Wall seats – and their only way is down. An opportunity now awaits the party in Scotland – there is no reason why they should not aspire to the 13 seats won in 2017.

There is, however, a careful line to tread. They can’t completely divest themselves of the UK brand over the next 12 months, especially with a few prominent Scottish figures now occupying visible government roles. But they can keep their heads down.

There isn’t any benefit in getting involved in England-centric rows such as the Rwanda immigration policy or the rights and wrongs of Brexit. Nor should they waste too much time besmirching Sir Keir. The Labour leader comes across as reasonable, most Scots find him palatable, and singling him out will only serve to remind voters that he represents an upgrade on those currently occupying Downing Street.

UK party facing civil war

As such, the Scottish Tories should fight the next general election as if it were a Holyrood poll. That means focusing squarely on the SNP’s domestic record, and reaffirming (but not ad nauseum) the party’s natural opposition to independence and a second referendum.

The more Scottish the issue, the more it should be talked about. The only small boats that Scottish candidates should be highlighting are the ones serving Scotland’s islands; the ferries crisis is a proper scandal and one for which the SNP deserves to be crucified in the heat of an election campaign.

The manifesto should offer firm commitments to the farmers and fishermen of rural Scotland, talk up unequivocal support of the North Sea, and keep drawing attention to the Scottish Government’s failures around health and education. That gives the party a strong and streamlined agenda on which to run.

It won’t be without its challenges, and there will be days when they feel dragged down by the impending civil war within the UK party. But if the patterns of the last three general elections play out, the Scottish Conservatives could have much to look forward to. They might even want to order in some Champagne in preparation.

Adam Morris is a former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives