Dire economic consequences of Scotland's ageing population must put immigration in new light

New report about Scotland’s growing elderly population underlines the need to improve our health and welcome, not demonise, people from overseas

Scotland’s ageing population is a long-term problem often overlooked in everyday political debate. However, according to one scenario in projections drawn up by the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC), the resulting pressures on the public purse over the next 25 years could mean Scotland’s current finances are “unsustainable”.

If the nation’s health worsens and the UK Government decides to reduce its debts, the Scottish Government could eventually see an average budget gap of up to £16 billion a year. Clearly, that would mean massive public spending cuts, which might affect health and social care, large tax increases that would damage economic growth, or a combination of both.

While England faces a similar problem, Scotland’s population is ageing more quickly. Professor Graeme Roy, the SFC’s chair, said this could “result in health spending over the next 25 years growing faster than the funding provided through the Barnett formula”.

Elderly people tend to use public services like the NHS more than younger ones (Picture: Sean Gallup) | Getty Images

Scotland must become a ‘sporting nation’

Other pressures on the UK Government’s budget, such as the need to increase defence spending because of the actions of warmongering dictators like Putin, and, if they continue, the current trade tensions, could also hit the amount of money available to Scotland.

The report also makes clear that there would be a multi-billion-pound difference between a healthy and an unhealthy Scotland in yet further evidence of the need to turn this country into a ‘sporting nation’ – a relatively simple step that would reap rewards far in excess of the investment required. In one scenario, improved health could actually help produce a £9.6bn budget boost by 2074.

The situation also underlines the importance of immigration. There are pros and cons to large-scale migration, but demonising those who come is not only immoral, it is also foolish when considered even in terms of narrow self-interest.

Both Scotland and the UK as a whole need people of working age to help pay for state pensions, the NHS and social care. A shrinking workforce is bad news for the economy and for tax revenues, which is particularly bad news for elderly people, who tend to rely on public services more than most.

Scotland’s ageing population is an issue we must all take more seriously.