Why Conservative leadership contest is a historically important event

As Kemi Badenoch entered the Conservative leadership race, the field expanded to six. In the early days of the Labour government, this contest may seem like a political sideshow but it could turn out to be a most important decision.

The Tories’ worst-ever election result saw the emergence of Reform UK as a significant political force and the breaking of the Conservative coalition. Pity the party strategists trying to reassemble the pieces.

The obvious move would be to tack right to win back voters lured into Reform’s clutches by Nigel Farage. But doing so risks further alienating the party’s demoralised liberal wing.

Some in Labour may welcome the Tories’ disarray. However, if they fail to recover or become a pale imitation of Reform, the result could be elections contested by centre-left Labour and hard-right populists. No party is in power forever.

Emphasising the seriousness of her challenge, Badenoch made several strong points in an article for The Times. “After such a terrible result, some will assume that things will naturally get better. The truth is that it could get much worse,” she said. Describing the Tories’ policy offer as “incoherent”, she added that “the country will not vote for us if we don’t know who we are or what we want to be”.

In remarks that other parties should heed, Badenoch argued that “we thought we could just be managerially better at governing than the other side... Too often, we were led by focus groups... Real leadership sets a principles-based vision about where to take the country and then inspires people to join that shared mission.” In other words, leaders must lead, not chase after supposed followers for the sake of power. Voters see through that.

Her recipe for Conservative “renewal” may not be the correct one. But if the UK is to be saved from Reform, the Tories need to think carefully about who they are and get their act together. Whether they can is another matter. The party members who gave us Prime Minister Liz Truss are about to be presented with a decision the consequences of which may echo long into history.